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Graham Stephan: Inflation will fall

Said on Mar 27, 2020, at 4:08 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I think the actual enemy here is actually deflation where the price of everything goes down and the value of your cash goes up”
Watch at 4:08HOW TO SPEND YOUR $1200 STIMULUS CHECK
PredictionInflationwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

1.5%

Mar 27, 2020

Reading at close

2.65%

Mar 27, 2021

Change

+1.15 pp

Inflation stood at 1.50% at the start of the window and 2.65% at Mar 27, 2021, a change of +1.15 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Within band

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%201720182018201920202021Said on Mar 27, 2020
−2%0%2%4%6%2017201820202021Said on Mar 27, 2020

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct1.5%0.37%Apr 26, 2020−1.13 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct1.5%0.75%Jun 25, 2020−0.75 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band1.5%1.5%Sep 23, 2020+0.01 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect1.5%2.65%Mar 27, 2021+1.15 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect1.5%4.9%Mar 27, 2023+3.40 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect1.5%2.37%Mar 26, 2025+0.87 pp—
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 1.50% at the start of the window and 0.37% at Apr 26, 2020, a change of −1.13 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 1.50% at the start of the window and 0.75% at Jun 25, 2020, a change of −0.75 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 1.50% at the start of the window and 1.50% at Sep 23, 2020, a change of +0.01 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 1.50% at the start of the window and 2.65% at Mar 27, 2021, a change of +1.15 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 1.50% at the start of the window and 4.90% at Mar 27, 2023, a change of +3.40 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Inflation stood at 1.50% at the start of the window and 2.37% at Mar 26, 2025, a change of +0.87 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

What was said around it

as their child is living full-time with them so if that's the case you just got to pester them long enough to try to give you some of that hard-earned stimulus money and then show them this video just so I can look them straight in the eyes and tell them to smash the like button next we got let the hyperinflation begin so obviously we'll see what happens with this but I would say increasing the national debt by ten to fifteen percent is unlikely to cause hyperinflation at a time where no one is spending money no I could be wrong but I think the actual enemy here is actually deflation where the price of everything goes down and the value of your cash goes up that indicates that people are not spending money through hoarding cash and as the prices of everything begin to fall people just hold off from spending any further because they believe their money is just going to be worth more if wait I would argue that has a worse effect on our economy all things considered but then again I'm just a dude on the internet I have no idea what's going on just a guess then we have hit the pause button Graham for president 2024 you know as much as I would love to be involved to help implement better financial

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%

“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%

“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

Relayed