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Joseph Carlson: TXRH will rise

Said on Dec 22, 2022, at 21:53 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“I think that Texas Roadhouse is in particular set up to do really well next year I think the Texas Roadhouse is still a sleeper stock that will outperform expectations”
Watch at 21:535 Stocks I’m Buying In A Panic | Joseph Carlson Ep. 296
PredictionTXRHwill riseby Dec 31, 2023
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$96.31

Dec 23, 2022

Price at close

$121.11

Dec 22, 2023

Total return, dividends included

+28.3%

S&P 500 +25.6%

TXRH closed at $96.31 on Dec 23, 2022. On Dec 22, 2023 it closed at $121.11, a total return of +28.3% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +25.6%. The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

TXRHWindow checked
$60$80$100$120$140$160Jun 2022Oct 2022Feb 2023Jun 2023Oct 2023Feb 2024Said on Dec 22, 2022
$60$80$100$120$140$160Jun 2022Jan 2023Aug 2023Feb 2024Said on Dec 22, 2022

TXRH closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$96.31Dec 23, 2022$98.76Jan 20, 2023+2.5%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +3.4%
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$96.31Dec 23, 2022$106.26Mar 22, 2023+10.9%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +2.8%
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$96.31Dec 23, 2022$108.07Jun 20, 2023+13.4%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +15.0%
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$96.31Dec 23, 2022$121.11Dec 22, 2023+28.3%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +25.6%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$96.31Dec 23, 2022$175.77Dec 19, 2025+91.9%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +84.9%
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Dec 21, 2027——
Stated deadlineR-DIR v4Correct$96.31Dec 23, 2022$122.23Dec 29, 2023+29.5%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +26.0%
Why: 30 days

TXRH closed at $96.31 on Dec 23, 2022. On Jan 20, 2023 it closed at $98.76, a total return of +2.5% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +3.4%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

TXRH closed at $96.31 on Dec 23, 2022. On Mar 22, 2023 it closed at $106.26, a total return of +10.9% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +2.8%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

TXRH closed at $96.31 on Dec 23, 2022. On Jun 20, 2023 it closed at $108.07, a total return of +13.4% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +15.0%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

TXRH closed at $96.31 on Dec 23, 2022. On Dec 22, 2023 it closed at $121.11, a total return of +28.3% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +25.6%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

TXRH closed at $96.31 on Dec 23, 2022. On Dec 19, 2025 it closed at $175.77, a total return of +91.9% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +84.9%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Dec 21, 2027.

Why: Stated deadline

TXRH closed at $96.31 on Dec 23, 2022. On Dec 29, 2023 it closed at $122.23, a total return of +29.5% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +26.0%. The call was that it would rise.

What was said around it

appreciation as well and the fact that these properties go up in value over time that's just one more way you get returns with Vichy my number four 2023 dividend stock pick is a little bit of a contrarian one we once again have predictions that we're going into a recession that people are being laid off that everything is Doom and Gloom and there's dark rain clouds ahead and that means that people aren't going to do anything fun like going out to eat or doing anything that's experiential and I have a contrarian pick I think that Texas Roadhouse is in particular set up to do really well next year I think the Texas Roadhouse is still a sleeper stock that will outperform expectations now I've talked about Texas Roadhouse a lot so I'm not going to do a full analysis on this company but I just want to highlight a couple things that I think are important that I haven't gone over anytime we're doing analysis on a stock and we're trying to see how it will do in a recession I think the best way to determine that is by simply looking at past recessions seeing what happened there's no data better than real data and observing what's happened in history because many times history does not really repeat

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Joseph CarlsonTXRHwill rise

“I believe Texas Roadhouse will continue to carve itself out as one of the top restaurants that people frequent”

Sep 19, 2024 · after 1 year

Incorrect−5.4%

Joseph CarlsonTXRH— a company event

“their execution and outperformance makes me believe that it's only a matter of time until they're introduced into the indexes”

May 3, 2024 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Joseph CarlsonTXRHwill rise

“I think Texas Roadhouse can continue to grow in double digits”

Mar 13, 2024 · after 1 year

Correct+10.9%

Joseph CarlsonTXRHwill outperform

“but not only is the starting valuation cheaper for Texas Roadhouse but I also believe it will outgrow the s p 500. I think the free cash flows will grow quicker so that is a way of trying to outperform the S P 500 finding companies that have starting yields as high around the same as the S P 500 but which can grow their future cash flows at a faster rate than the s p 500.”

Jan 13, 2023 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Joseph CarlsonTXRHwill rise

“I continue to believe this company is undervalued I think it still has some more room to grow as of right now I'm continuing to hold”

Oct 28, 2022 · after 1 year

Correct+1.0%

Joseph CarlsonTXRHwill rise to $120.00

“i think it's undervalued right now texas roadhouse trades at 87 dollars a share and i think the company's worth around 120.”

Jul 29, 2022 · after 1 year

Partly correct+26.7%