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Graham Stephan: SPY will rise

Said on Jun 1, 2022, at 8:51 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“over the next few months or even years the markets will recover”
Watch at 8:51It’s Over: Why The Middle Class Is Financially Screwed
PredictionSPYwill riseby Aug 30, 2022

Recorded as the markets, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.

What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$417.39

Jun 2, 2022

Price at close

$421.82

Jun 1, 2023

Total return, dividends included

+2.8%

SPY closed at $417.39 on Jun 2, 2022. On Jun 1, 2023 it closed at $421.82, a total return of +2.8% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$350$400$450$500Dec 2021Apr 2022Aug 2022Dec 2022Apr 2023Jul 2023Said on Jun 1, 2022
$350$400$450$500Dec 2021Jun 2022Jan 2023Jul 2023Said on Jun 1, 2022

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$417.39Jun 2, 2022$381.24Jul 1, 2022−8.3%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$417.39Jun 2, 2022$398.21Aug 30, 2022−4.2%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$417.39Jun 2, 2022$395.91Nov 28, 2022−4.3%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$417.39Jun 2, 2022$421.82Jun 1, 2023+2.8%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$417.39Jun 2, 2022$589.39May 30, 2025+47.5%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——May 28, 2027——
Stated deadlineR-DIR v4Incorrect$417.39Jun 2, 2022$398.21Aug 30, 2022−4.2%Total return, dividends included—
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $417.39 on Jun 2, 2022. On Jul 1, 2022 it closed at $381.24, a total return of −8.3% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $417.39 on Jun 2, 2022. On Aug 30, 2022 it closed at $398.21, a total return of −4.2% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $417.39 on Jun 2, 2022. On Nov 28, 2022 it closed at $395.91, a total return of −4.3% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $417.39 on Jun 2, 2022. On Jun 1, 2023 it closed at $421.82, a total return of +2.8% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $417.39 on Jun 2, 2022. On May 30, 2025 it closed at $589.39, a total return of +47.5% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 28, 2027.

Why: Stated deadline

SPY closed at $417.39 on Jun 2, 2022. On Aug 30, 2022 it closed at $398.21, a total return of −4.2% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

What was said around it

by 28 percent although take that with a grain of salt because a Guggenheim analyst also believes that the bottom could be eight thousand so basically everyone is just throwing out a random guess and eventually one of them is going to be right but the one thing that we don't have to guess on is that market volatility is your friend it's a great opportunity to buy in cheaper and don't be discouraged if you're in the negative and feel like throwing in the towel this is what a realistic and healthy Market should be looking like so embrace it dollar cost average and over the next few months or even years the markets will recover and at that time you'll be glad that you stayed the course and subscribe if you haven't done that already so with that said you guys thank you so much for watching also feel free to add me on Instagram thank you so much again for watching and until next time

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanSPYwill outperform

“Instead, just invest the difference in the S&P 500. And over the long term, over the next 20 years, you're going to have so much more money than what you would have put in the property.”

Sep 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Fidelity: SPY will rise

“Fidelity thinks that this is just the very beginning and the markets will continue going higher because of AI.”

Aug 25, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhSPYwill fall

“However, before the United States returns to the big print, the markets can continue going down.”

Aug 5, 2026 · after 30 days

Within band so far · 30 days+0.2%

Graham Stephan, relaying Morgan Stanley: SPY will rise

“On top of that, Morgan Stanley also believes 500 is going to rise this year, ending at 7,800. Citibank sees 7,700, and both JP Morgan and Wells Fargo see a relatively flat market for these next few months.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: SPY will rise

“Goldman Sachs just raised their year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000, up from 7,600, which implies solid upside from where we are today.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanSPYwill fall

“Historically, when the savings rate reaches an absolute low like this, the stock market tends to suffer in the years following. Now, I'm not saying that's a guarantee, but it's something at least worth considering.”

Jun 25, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days+5.6%