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Graham Stephan: Inflation will rise

Said on Jun 15, 2020, at 5:20 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I have a feeling that as soon as our economy recovers at that point inflation is something we should absolutely be concerned about there is no way the trillions of dollars of extra money being printed into our economy is not going to devalue the dollar at some point in the long run”
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PredictionInflationwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

0.75%

Jun 15, 2020

Reading at close

5.35%

Jun 15, 2021

Change

+4.60 pp

Inflation stood at 0.75% at the start of the window and 5.35% at Jun 15, 2021, a change of +4.60 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%8%201720182019202020202021Said on Jun 15, 2020
−2%0%2%4%6%8%2017201820202021Said on Jun 15, 2020

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band0.75%1%Jul 15, 2020+0.25 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct0.75%1.5%Sep 13, 2020+0.75 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct0.75%1.27%Dec 12, 2020+0.52 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct0.75%5.35%Jun 15, 2021+4.60 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct0.75%2.88%Jun 15, 2023+2.13 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct0.75%2.7%Jun 14, 2025+1.95 pp—
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 0.75% at the start of the window and 1.00% at Jul 15, 2020, a change of +0.25 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 0.75% at the start of the window and 1.50% at Sep 13, 2020, a change of +0.75 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 0.75% at the start of the window and 1.27% at Dec 12, 2020, a change of +0.52 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 0.75% at the start of the window and 5.35% at Jun 15, 2021, a change of +4.60 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 0.75% at the start of the window and 2.88% at Jun 15, 2023, a change of +2.13 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Inflation stood at 0.75% at the start of the window and 2.70% at Jun 14, 2025, a change of +1.95 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

What was said around it

dramatic plunge in household spending and earnings household concerns about their economic situation as reflected in consumer sentiment may be leading them to save more for precautionary reasons that's why they project inflation to be just under one percent in 2020 1.6 percent in 2021 and 1.7 percent in 2022 those numbers are all under the recommended 2% of inflation that they aim for every year now as far as my thoughts on this for whatever that is worth I have a feeling that as soon as our economy recovers at that point inflation is something we should absolutely be concerned about there is no way the trillions of dollars of extra money being printed into our economy is not going to devalue the dollar at some point in the long run but I also have a feeling that's gonna be a problem we'll deal with three to five years from now and not so much today and lastly for the good news let's talk interest rates as I'm sure most of us are aware and constantly reminded every single time you look at your savings account and see it paying almost nothing in interest the Federal Reserve has lowered their interest rates down to almost nothing this was to promote more borrowing make the cost of borrowing

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%

“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%

“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

Relayed