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Graham Stephan: Inflation will rise

Said on May 17, 2021, at 11:27 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I wouldn't be surprised if prices and inflation stay high longer than expected and that Spooks the market into dropping a little bit further”
Watch at 11:27The Stock Market Just Flipped
PredictionInflationwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

5%

May 17, 2021

Reading at close

8.54%

May 17, 2022

Change

+3.54 pp

Inflation stood at 5.00% at the start of the window and 8.54% at May 17, 2022, a change of +3.54 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Within band

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%8%10%201820192020202020212022Said on May 17, 2021
−5%0%5%10%2018201920212022Said on May 17, 2021

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band5%5.35%Jun 16, 2021+0.35 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band5%5.13%Aug 15, 2021+0.14 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct5%6.93%Nov 13, 2021+1.93 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct5%8.54%May 17, 2022+3.54 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect5%3.27%May 16, 2024−1.72 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect5%4.18%May 16, 2026−0.82 pp—
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 5.00% at the start of the window and 5.35% at Jun 16, 2021, a change of +0.35 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 5.00% at the start of the window and 5.13% at Aug 15, 2021, a change of +0.14 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 5.00% at the start of the window and 6.93% at Nov 13, 2021, a change of +1.93 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 5.00% at the start of the window and 8.54% at May 17, 2022, a change of +3.54 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 5.00% at the start of the window and 3.27% at May 16, 2024, a change of −1.72 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Inflation stood at 5.00% at the start of the window and 4.18% at May 16, 2026, a change of −0.82 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

What was said around it

missed the 10 best days in the stock market over the last 15 years your overall return drops by over 50% and if you miss the best 20 days your overall return drops by More than 70% that's why buying in and continuing to buy in even when the market drops is the only historically proven way to come out ahead with as much money as possible now personally as for my own thoughts on this I think we're going to see a bit of a mixture between the market thinking the FED is wrong and the FED saying that Rising inflation is only 10 orary I wouldn't be surprised if prices and inflation stay high longer than expected and that Spooks the market into dropping a little bit further but long term I don't think it's going to be as bad as some headlines make it out to be and so many situations happening right now are really only temporary and will eventually be solved over time this is also a really great reminder to show you the importance of diversification and not chasing after returns of high growth companies just because they've done well previously for example tech stocks which have really rallied throughout the last year are not doing as well today as some of the value stocks and there's certainly

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%

“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%

“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

Relayed