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Joseph Carlson: SPY will rise

Said on Sep 26, 2022, at 25:08 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“I'll be using this sell-off which I do consider to be temporary in the long run as an opportunity to buy buy more companies that I consider to be these world-class Compounders”
Watch at 25:08Jeremy Siegel Just Destroyed The Fed | Joseph Carlson Ep. 274
PredictionSPYwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

Recorded as the market, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.

What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$363.38

Sep 27, 2022

Price at close

$425.88

Sep 26, 2023

Total return, dividends included

+19.0%

SPY closed at $363.38 on Sep 27, 2022. On Sep 26, 2023 it closed at $425.88, a total return of +19.0% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$340$360$380$400$420$440$460$480Mar 2022Jul 2022Nov 2022Mar 2023Jul 2023Nov 2023Said on Sep 26, 2022
$350$400$450$500Mar 2022Oct 2022May 2023Nov 2023Said on Sep 26, 2022

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$363.38Sep 27, 2022$382.02Oct 26, 2022+5.1%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$363.38Sep 27, 2022$382.91Dec 23, 2022+5.9%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$363.38Sep 27, 2022$395.75Mar 24, 2023+9.8%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$363.38Sep 27, 2022$425.88Sep 26, 2023+19.0%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$363.38Sep 27, 2022$658.05Sep 25, 2025+88.7%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Sep 24, 2027——
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $363.38 on Sep 27, 2022. On Oct 26, 2022 it closed at $382.02, a total return of +5.1% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $363.38 on Sep 27, 2022. On Dec 23, 2022 it closed at $382.91, a total return of +5.9% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $363.38 on Sep 27, 2022. On Mar 24, 2023 it closed at $395.75, a total return of +9.8% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $363.38 on Sep 27, 2022. On Sep 26, 2023 it closed at $425.88, a total return of +19.0% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $363.38 on Sep 27, 2022. On Sep 25, 2025 it closed at $658.05, a total return of +88.7% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 24, 2027.

What was said around it

portfolio I will survive in either situation if the market continues to go down of course my gains will go down a little bit but my companies will be just fine they have incredibly strong balance sheets none of them are over leverage every single one of them I believe possesses the fundamentals the free cash flow to continue to be able to grow even during a recession so I'm not concerned about the worst Market environment and I'm not concerned about stocks going up I'm not conflicted in either situation and I'll be using this sell-off which I do consider to be temporary in the long run as an opportunity to buy buy more companies that I consider to be these world-class Compounders and like I said in my next episode we'll be going over the valuation of every single one of my companies one by one so I think that'll be a fun one if you're interested in my thoughts on what my companies are really worth I'll be doing that in the next episode so having said that I'll see you next time

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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