Graham Stephan: SPY will rise

Said on Sep 24, 2021, at 7:00 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“which could cause the market to go even higher.”
Watch at 7:00Why The Market Hasn't Crashed Yet
PredictionSPYwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

Recorded as market, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.

What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$442.64

Sep 27, 2021

Price at close

$367.95

Sep 23, 2022

Total return, dividends included

−15.6%

SPY closed at $442.64 on Sep 27, 2021. On Sep 23, 2022 it closed at $367.95, a total return of −15.6% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Incorrect

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$350$400$450$500Mar 2021Jul 2021Nov 2021Mar 2022Jul 2022Nov 2022Said on Sep 24, 2021
$350$400$450$500Mar 2021Oct 2021May 2022Nov 2022Said on Sep 24, 2021

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$442.64Sep 27, 2021$453.12Oct 22, 2021+2.4%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$442.64Sep 27, 2021$470.60Dec 23, 2021+6.7%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$442.64Sep 27, 2021$443.80Mar 23, 2022+0.9%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-DIR v4Incorrect$442.64Sep 27, 2021$367.95Sep 23, 2022−15.6%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$442.64Sep 27, 2021$569.67Sep 23, 2024+34.5%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$442.64Sep 27, 2021$767.81Sep 23, 2026+85.5%Total return, dividends included—
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $442.64 on Sep 27, 2021. On Oct 22, 2021 it closed at $453.12, a total return of +2.4% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $442.64 on Sep 27, 2021. On Dec 23, 2021 it closed at $470.60, a total return of +6.7% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $442.64 on Sep 27, 2021. On Mar 23, 2022 it closed at $443.80, a total return of +0.9% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $442.64 on Sep 27, 2021. On Sep 23, 2022 it closed at $367.95, a total return of −15.6% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $442.64 on Sep 27, 2021. On Sep 23, 2024 it closed at $569.67, a total return of +34.5% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

SPY closed at $442.64 on Sep 27, 2021. On Sep 23, 2026 it closed at $767.81, a total return of +85.5% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

What was said around it

winds down and the news that the Federal Reserve is going to start tapering their stimulus. Not to mention, both people and companies are sitting on a record amount of cash, which is set to be 50% higher than they had just 5 years ago. This is because during the pandemic, businesses scaled back on investments, dividends, and share buybacks. And instead, they loaded up on cash and low interest rate debt. This in theory would insulate them in the event of another unexpected market catastrophe. But it also means they have a lot of resources at their disposal if they need it, which could cause the market to go even higher. Now, yes, it's true that their debt level also increased, but at these interest rates, it's pretty much like free money. Just consider that the US inflation rate was about 5.4% throughout the entire summer. So, if a company's able to borrow money at a lower interest rate than that, then not only are they getting a totally free loan, but they're also getting paid to borrow money. What a concept. Now, homeowners also fall into this category, who saw a record boost of equity over the last year as real estate values continue to climb. As far as where we go from here, we're

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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