“the authors note that these debts have put limits on fiscal and monetary policy tools the bis also sees inflation as a risk specifically inflation coming from a rising cost of goods caused by supply chain issues and inflation coming from a rising cost of Labor due to a shortage of Labor”Coin Bureau, relaying another source: Inflation will rise
Said on Aug 4, 2024, at 4:06 in the video.
The window it was checked over
Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
Result at every window
All windows are shown, so none is pickedSomebody else's forecast — not scored
What was said around it
Market participants as you might have noticed most investors are expecting a soft Landing that is inflation will come down without unemployment going up or the economy slowing too much the authors seem to imply that this prediction is premature from the bis's perspective the biggest risk to a soft Landing is the UN fathomable amount of debt that's been taken on by the private sector AKA households and corporations and the public sector AKA governments the authors note that these debts have put limits on fiscal and monetary policy tools the bis also sees inflation as a risk specifically inflation coming from a rising cost of goods caused by supply chain issues and inflation coming from a rising cost of Labor due to a shortage of Labor not to brag but but this is exactly what we predicted will happen in our video about why globalism is dead and of course the authors acknowledg that a spike in commodity prices related to geopolitics could also cause a Resurgence in inflation and they say this quote the outcome so far has been surprisingly benign but tougher tests May lie ahead translation geopolitics could become more volatile for what it's worth the bis believes the banking system will
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
More on Inflation
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction
“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”
Jun 17, 2026
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%
“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”
Jun 17, 2026
Graham Stephana call under review
“First, taxes are going up.”
Jun 1, 2026
Graham Stephana call with no clear direction
“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”
May 18, 2026
Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%
“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”
Apr 20, 2026
Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%
“the Federal Reserve's recent summary of economic projections insists that inflation will magically settle at just 2.7% over the exact same time frame.”
Apr 9, 2026