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Graham Stephan: SPY will rise

Said on May 4, 2026, at 13:33 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“It looks as though the stock market might continue getting even more expensive over time.”
Watch at 13:33Stock Market Just Hit ANOTHER Record - WTF Just Happened?!
PredictionSPYwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

Recorded as stock market, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.

What happenedafter 180 days
Correct so far · 180 days

Entry price (first close after the video)

$723.77

May 5, 2026

Price at close

$755.72

Oct 30, 2026

Total return, dividends included

+4.9%

SPY closed at $723.77 on May 5, 2026. On Oct 30, 2026 it closed at $755.72, a total return of +4.9% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Pending

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$600$650$700$750$800Nov 2025Feb 2026Jun 2026Sep 2026Jan 2027May 2027Said on May 4, 2026
$600$650$700$750$800Nov 2025May 2026Nov 2026May 2027Said on May 4, 2026

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$723.77May 5, 2026$754.24Jun 3, 2026+4.2%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$723.77May 5, 2026$747.03Jul 31, 2026+3.5%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$723.77May 5, 2026$755.72Oct 30, 2026+4.9%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-DIR v4Pending——May 4, 2027——
3 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——May 3, 2029——
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——May 2, 2031——
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $723.77 on May 5, 2026. On Jun 3, 2026 it closed at $754.24, a total return of +4.2% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $723.77 on May 5, 2026. On Jul 31, 2026 it closed at $747.03, a total return of +3.5% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $723.77 on May 5, 2026. On Oct 30, 2026 it closed at $755.72, a total return of +4.9% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 4, 2027.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 3, 2029.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 2, 2031.

What was said around it

of whether or not we are in a bubble, here's the reality. In order for us to see a repeat of what happened to Japan, earnings would have to stall out completely, and the S&P 500 would need to rise to more than 14,000 for us to be at the same level. Or basically, if everything stays the exact same, but the prices double on everything, then yes, we risk ending up like Japan. But as expensive as everything is, and as much as there is the possibility that something happens that we haven't accounted for here in the market drops 30% as it stands right now. It looks as though the stock market might continue getting even more expensive over time. Plus I'm just going to say it. The fact that we're talking about a bubble here means that to a certain degree the bubble talk might be somewhat priced in. Honestly, all of this is just to say that now is the time to be cautious. Make sure you have a steady income. Make sure you're properly diversified. Make sure you have enough to weather through a 30 to 50% crash or correction if that were to happen. And as long as you continue to keep the course any stock market correction in the short term is just going to be a good buying opportunity long term.

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanSPYwill outperform

“Instead, just invest the difference in the S&P 500. And over the long term, over the next 20 years, you're going to have so much more money than what you would have put in the property.”

Sep 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Fidelity: SPY will rise

“Fidelity thinks that this is just the very beginning and the markets will continue going higher because of AI.”

Aug 25, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhSPYwill fall

“However, before the United States returns to the big print, the markets can continue going down.”

Aug 5, 2026 · after 90 days

Correct so far · 90 days−1.6%

Graham Stephan, relaying Morgan Stanley: SPY will rise

“On top of that, Morgan Stanley also believes 500 is going to rise this year, ending at 7,800. Citibank sees 7,700, and both JP Morgan and Wells Fargo see a relatively flat market for these next few months.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: SPY will rise

“Goldman Sachs just raised their year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000, up from 7,600, which implies solid upside from where we are today.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanSPYwill fall

“Historically, when the savings rate reaches an absolute low like this, the stock market tends to suffer in the years following. Now, I'm not saying that's a guarantee, but it's something at least worth considering.”

Jun 25, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days+5.6%