Graham Stephan: Inflation — around 2%

Said on Sep 2, 2025, at 10:46 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“inflation slowly reduces the purchasing power of every dollar by 2 to 5% a year as the government prints more money into the economy.”
Watch at 10:46Why 97% Of Investors Lose Money
PredictionInflation— around 2%Checked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Not verifiable

Not verifiable: target already reached. Inflation stood at 3.1% year on year in Sep 2025 (CPIAUCSL, first releases), already at or above the target recorded for this call, 2.0%.

30 days

Not verifiable

90 days

Not verifiable

180 days

Not verifiable

1 year

Not verifiable

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
0%2%4%6%8%10%202220232024202520252026Said on Sep 2, 2025
0%2%4%6%8%10%2022202420252026Said on Sep 2, 2025

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
Why: 30 days

Not verifiable: target already reached. Inflation stood at 3.1% year on year in Sep 2025 (CPIAUCSL, first releases), already at or above the target recorded for this call, 2.0%.

Why: 90 days

Not verifiable: target already reached. Inflation stood at 3.1% year on year in Sep 2025 (CPIAUCSL, first releases), already at or above the target recorded for this call, 2.0%.

Why: 180 days

Not verifiable: target already reached. Inflation stood at 3.1% year on year in Sep 2025 (CPIAUCSL, first releases), already at or above the target recorded for this call, 2.0%.

Why: 1 year

Not verifiable: target already reached. Inflation stood at 3.1% year on year in Sep 2025 (CPIAUCSL, first releases), already at or above the target recorded for this call, 2.0%.

Why: 3 years

Not verifiable: target already reached. Inflation stood at 3.1% year on year in Sep 2025 (CPIAUCSL, first releases), already at or above the target recorded for this call, 2.0%.

Why: 5 years

Not verifiable: target already reached. Inflation stood at 3.1% year on year in Sep 2025 (CPIAUCSL, first releases), already at or above the target recorded for this call, 2.0%.

What was said around it

everything I've already covered here, but funny enough, this could also lead to some of the biggest financial losses in the form of opportunity cost. Look, don't get the wrong idea. It is important to have enough cash on hand to cover a 3 to six month emergency fund, pay down margin debt as needed, and have enough left over to cover anything else that might happen. But there is a point where you keep too much cash to the point where it negatively impacts your entire portfolio. That's because over time you lose value in two ways. One, inflation slowly reduces the purchasing power of every dollar by 2 to 5% a year as the government prints more money into the economy. And two, you miss out on the profits you would have made had that money been invested. Look, it sounds weird, but I've seen people lose more money, staying out of the markets, waiting for a crash that never happens, than the other person who buys in at the very peak and then watches their entire portfolio evaporate 30% in a few months. That's why I think if you're playing it too safe and constantly waiting for the market to crash for the perfect opportunity to buy in, chances are it's never going to happen. Either the market goes

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