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Joseph Carlson: Inflation will fall

Said on May 27, 2022, at 14:43 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“i'm still in the viewpoint i still maintain the same viewpoint that i think there's a very good chance inflation will be lower by the end of 2022 than at its peak i think it will be much lower”
Watch at 14:43Costco Just Saved The Stock Market
PredictionInflationwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

8.54%

May 27, 2022

Reading at close

4.06%

May 27, 2023

Change

−4.48 pp

Inflation stood at 8.54% at the start of the window and 4.06% at May 27, 2023, a change of −4.48 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Within band

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%8%10%201920202021202120222023Said on May 27, 2022
−5%0%5%10%2019202020222023Said on May 27, 2022

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band8.54%8.98%Jun 26, 2022+0.45 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band8.54%8.28%Aug 25, 2022−0.25 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.54%6.98%Nov 23, 2022−1.55 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.54%4.06%May 27, 2023−4.48 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.54%2.35%May 26, 2025−6.19 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——May 26, 2027——
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 8.54% at the start of the window and 8.98% at Jun 26, 2022, a change of +0.45 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 8.54% at the start of the window and 8.28% at Aug 25, 2022, a change of −0.25 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 8.54% at the start of the window and 6.98% at Nov 23, 2022, a change of −1.55 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 8.54% at the start of the window and 4.06% at May 27, 2023, a change of −4.48 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 8.54% at the start of the window and 2.35% at May 26, 2025, a change of −6.19 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 26, 2027.

What was said around it

probably didn't need as much stimulus to begin with because they still have that in their bank account they have a lot of discretionary savings to continue spending so inflation will probably still remain somewhat elevated until the higher income americans spend through that discretionary income but again my view is kind of contrarian on the subject most of the people that i talk to think that inflation is totally out of control and it's going to spiral further out of control by the end of this year i'm still in the viewpoint i still maintain the same viewpoint that i think there's a very good chance inflation will be lower by the end of 2022 than at its peak i think it will be much lower so that's my viewpoint but i'm investing where either outcome could happen and i still think i'll have decent returns inflation or not i'm investing in good companies that i think will weather this storm so that's all for this episode i hope you enjoyed it have a great weekend and i'll see you in the next one

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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