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Graham Stephan: SPY will rise

Said on Mar 11, 2022, at 4:37 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“suggesting that in this case as we approach extreme fear we could very well be positioned for even higher growth throughout these next few years”
Watch at 4:37It’s Over: Why Investors Are Screwed
PredictionSPYwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

Recorded as stock market, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.

What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$417.00

Mar 14, 2022

Price at close

$385.91

Mar 10, 2023

Total return, dividends included

−6.0%

SPY closed at $417.00 on Mar 14, 2022. On Mar 10, 2023 it closed at $385.91, a total return of −6.0% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$350$400$450$500Sep 2021Jan 2022May 2022Sep 2022Jan 2023May 2023Said on Mar 11, 2022
$350$400$450$500Sep 2021Apr 2022Oct 2022May 2023Said on Mar 11, 2022

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$417.00Mar 14, 2022$447.57Apr 8, 2022+7.7%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$417.00Mar 14, 2022$401.44Jun 9, 2022−3.4%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$417.00Mar 14, 2022$397.78Sep 7, 2022−3.9%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-DIR v4Incorrect$417.00Mar 14, 2022$385.91Mar 10, 2023−6.0%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$417.00Mar 14, 2022$560.58Mar 10, 2025+40.5%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Mar 10, 2027——
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $417.00 on Mar 14, 2022. On Apr 8, 2022 it closed at $447.57, a total return of +7.7% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $417.00 on Mar 14, 2022. On Jun 9, 2022 it closed at $401.44, a total return of −3.4% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $417.00 on Mar 14, 2022. On Sep 7, 2022 it closed at $397.78, a total return of −3.9% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $417.00 on Mar 14, 2022. On Mar 10, 2023 it closed at $385.91, a total return of −6.0% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $417.00 on Mar 14, 2022. On Mar 10, 2025 it closed at $560.58, a total return of +40.5% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 10, 2027.

What was said around it

but when it comes to retail investors even though that can signal higher returns than hedge funds it's probably not the best indicator to look at to begin with since hedge funds have severely underperformed the market since 2011 and their goal is to maintain stability not to optimize for the most profit possible as you can see here instead from everything that I could find the best indicator to look at is simply total investor sentiment in which historically High investor sentiment predicts low future returns and vice versa suggesting that in this case as we approach extreme fear we could very well be positioned for even higher growth throughout these next few years unless you're supposed to do the opposite of that in which case is it better to do the opposite of the opposite if I'm already doing the opposite anyway what about stock splits with both Google and Amazon about to become 1 20th of their price in just a few months is now the time to get in and does a cheaper price actually correlate to higher returns based on science so first of all a stock split occurs when a company decides to lower their price per share by splitting them up into smaller segments thereby making them seem

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanSPYwill outperform

“Instead, just invest the difference in the S&P 500. And over the long term, over the next 20 years, you're going to have so much more money than what you would have put in the property.”

Sep 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Fidelity: SPY will rise

“Fidelity thinks that this is just the very beginning and the markets will continue going higher because of AI.”

Aug 25, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhSPYwill fall

“However, before the United States returns to the big print, the markets can continue going down.”

Aug 5, 2026 · after 30 days

Within band so far · 30 days+0.2%

Graham Stephan, relaying Morgan Stanley: SPY will rise

“On top of that, Morgan Stanley also believes 500 is going to rise this year, ending at 7,800. Citibank sees 7,700, and both JP Morgan and Wells Fargo see a relatively flat market for these next few months.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: SPY will rise

“Goldman Sachs just raised their year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000, up from 7,600, which implies solid upside from where we are today.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanSPYwill fall

“Historically, when the savings rate reaches an absolute low like this, the stock market tends to suffer in the years following. Now, I'm not saying that's a guarantee, but it's something at least worth considering.”

Jun 25, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days+5.6%