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Coin Bureau: Inflation will rise

Said on Nov 14, 2022, at 17:12 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“in short inflation is likely to continue and this means that the fed and other central banks will continue raising interest rates”
Watch at 17:12Crypto News: FTX BLOWUP, Market Crash, Contagion & MORE!!
PredictionInflationwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

6.98%

Nov 14, 2022

Reading at close

3.21%

Nov 14, 2023

Change

−3.77 pp

Inflation stood at 6.98% at the start of the window and 3.21% at Nov 14, 2023, a change of −3.77 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%8%10%201920202021202220232024Said on Nov 14, 2022
−5%0%5%10%2019202120222024Said on Nov 14, 2022

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect6.98%6.4%Dec 14, 2022−0.59 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect6.98%6.15%Feb 12, 2023−0.84 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect6.98%4.06%May 13, 2023−2.93 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect6.98%3.21%Nov 14, 2023−3.77 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect6.98%2.71%Nov 13, 2025−4.27 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Nov 13, 2027——
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 6.98% at the start of the window and 6.40% at Dec 14, 2022, a change of −0.59 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 6.98% at the start of the window and 6.15% at Feb 12, 2023, a change of −0.84 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 6.98% at the start of the window and 4.06% at May 13, 2023, a change of −2.93 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 6.98% at the start of the window and 3.21% at Nov 14, 2023, a change of −3.77 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 6.98% at the start of the window and 2.71% at Nov 13, 2025, a change of −4.27 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Nov 13, 2027.

What was said around it

expect that inflation is coming down but it suddenly starts to rise then the market crash will be that much more brutal I suspect this is exactly what will happen over the winter months when energy use around the world spikes and the shortages become acute there's also lots of uncertainty about the United States's strategic petroleum reserves China's zero covert policy and the ongoing war in Ukraine all three of these negative macro factors could theoretically be resolved in the coming months but this seems unlikely for the time being in short inflation is likely to continue and this means that the fed and other central banks will continue raising interest rates this will cause a global recession and possibly one that's deeper than most investors are pricing in this will also cause crypto to crash but create an opportunity for accumulation regardless I reckon it's wise to stack Fiat currencies during times like these so turning to the charts no it's not going to be pleasant we can see that BTC is bleeding hard and that's because it finally broke a massive bear flag that had been forming on the monthly previous zones of support and resistance suggest we could drop to 14 to 15K in the coming

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%

“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%

“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

Relayed