Joseph Carlson: ADBE will rise

Said on Mar 20, 2025, at 9:42 in the video.

What was saidMar 20, 2025

@josephcarlsonshow

“so I revisit Adobe today because I think it's an interesting one to look at I think that investors are more likely to make money today than lose money I believe the risk reward is to the upside but right now there's still some uncertainties in the stock and the fundamentals that keep me out of it”

Watch at 9:42The Four Deepest Value Stocks In The Market

PredictionADBEwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

What happenedafter 1 year

Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$387.26

Mar 21, 2025

Price at close

$248.15

Mar 20, 2026

Total return, dividends included

−35.9%

S&P 500 +16.3%

ADBE closed at $387.26 on Mar 21, 2025. On Mar 20, 2026 it closed at $248.15, a total return of −35.9% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +16.3%. The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidence Report a problem

The window it was checked over

ADBEWindow checked

ADBE closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Result at every window
Window	Result	At the start	At the end	Change	Benchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4	Incorrect	$387.26Mar 21, 2025	$348.80Apr 17, 2025	−9.9%Total return, dividends included	S&P 500 −6.7%
90 daysR-DIR v4	Incorrect	$387.26Mar 21, 2025	$378.04Jun 18, 2025	−2.4%Total return, dividends included	S&P 500 +5.9%
180 daysR-DIR v4	Incorrect	$387.26Mar 21, 2025	$352.73Sep 16, 2025	−8.9%Total return, dividends included	S&P 500 +17.4%
1 yearR-DIR v4	Incorrect	$387.26Mar 21, 2025	$248.15Mar 20, 2026	−35.9%Total return, dividends included	S&P 500 +16.3%
3 yearsR-DIR v4	Pending	—	—Mar 17, 2028	—	—
5 yearsR-DIR v4	Pending	—	—Mar 19, 2030	—	—

Why: 30 days

ADBE closed at $387.26 on Mar 21, 2025. On Apr 17, 2025 it closed at $348.80, a total return of −9.9% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −6.7%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

ADBE closed at $387.26 on Mar 21, 2025. On Jun 18, 2025 it closed at $378.04, a total return of −2.4% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +5.9%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

ADBE closed at $387.26 on Mar 21, 2025. On Sep 16, 2025 it closed at $352.73, a total return of −8.9% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +17.4%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 17, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 19, 2030.

What was said around it

agents are at the end of the day agents uh understand how to do reasoning they're performing tasks to achieve a business outcome and so we announced a series of Agents uh that will work uh you know to help marketers accomplish their tasks faster agentic AI is the next step and you've heard every major large software company talk about Agents from Salesforce to service now to Adobe but the jury still out of how this will affect these companies overall so I revisit Adobe today because I think it's an interesting one to look at I think that investors are more likely to make money today than lose money I believe the risk reward is to the upside but right now there's still some uncertainties in the stock and the fundamentals that keep me out of it next up we have Nike this is a company that's come back on the radar as it's had a terrible performance over the past couple of years in fact Nike has been underperforming for some time while the stock is flat year to date if we zoom out to one year it's down 27% over the 5-year period it's only up 177% and then over a full 10 years an entire decade Nike has provided a 44% return to investors at one point Nike was trading high at around $170 per share

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