Được nói ngày 21/05/2026, tại 14:12 trong video.
“That's why I tend to think that anyone who's waiting around for cheap money to come back is probably going to be waiting for a lot longer than expected.”Không thể xác định chắc chắn hướng của dự đoán này, nên không tính vào điểm số.
Cận trên của biên độ lãi suất mục tiêu quỹ liên bang (Fed funds): Hội đồng Thống đốc Cục Dự trữ Liên bang Mỹ, qua FRED, số liệu công bố lần đầu. Vùng tô là khung thời gian được kiểm chứng; vùng xám là các giai đoạn suy thoái.
Không thể xác định chắc chắn hướng của dự đoán này, nên không tính vào điểm số.
think the coverage around Kevin Warsh has been a bit dramatic on both sides of the equation. Like, the reality is he inherited an economy with 3.8% inflation, $106 oil, a divided Federal Reserve, and the bond market that's already calling his bluff. On top of that, the market's not pricing in rate cuts anymore, like we all thought a few months ago. Instead, it's beginning to price in the chance of a rate hike. And none of this regime change rhetoric is going to change the numbers unless inflation meaningfully comes down. That's why I tend to think that anyone who's waiting around for cheap money to come back is probably going to be waiting for a lot longer than expected. Now, in terms of whether or not any of this was Kevin Warsh's fault, my take is kind of. Like, on the one hand, he did enter the Federal Reserve in the middle of oil prices spiking from the conflict in the Middle East. That is completely outside of his control. But on the other hand, the market doesn't believe that he's going to be tough on inflation. And they think that with him in control, prices are just going to be going crazy, and they don't believe anything he says. So, he isn't necessarily helping the situation,
Lời của người nói được giữ nguyên văn và không bao giờ được dịch. Đường dẫn mở đúng giây đó trong video.
Graham Stephan, dẫn lời nguồn khác: Lãi suất chính sách Fed sẽ tăng
“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”
03/09/2026
Graham Stephan, dẫn lời nguồn khác: Lãi suất chính sách Fed sẽ tăng
“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”
17/06/2026
Andrei JikhLãi suất chính sách Fed— không nêu hướng
“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”
15/06/2026 · sau 1 năm
Graham StephanLãi suất chính sách Fedsẽ giảm
“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”
01/06/2026 · sau 90 ngày
Andrei Jikh, dẫn lời nguồn khác: Lãi suất chính sách Fed sẽ tăng
“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”
26/05/2026
Andrei Jikh, dẫn lời nguồn khác: Lãi suất chính sách Fed sẽ tăng
“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”
26/05/2026
