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Andrei Jikh: Inflation will rise

Said on Oct 25, 2021, at 13:28 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“it works best when there is an expectation of inflation which is right about now all of us are expecting inflation to go up”
Watch at 13:28How To Invest Like The 1%
PredictionInflationwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

6.3%

Oct 25, 2021

Reading at close

7.71%

Oct 25, 2022

Change

+1.41 pp

Inflation stood at 6.30% at the start of the window and 7.71% at Oct 25, 2022, a change of +1.41 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%8%10%201820192020202120222023Said on Oct 25, 2021
−5%0%5%10%2018202020212023Said on Oct 25, 2021

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct6.3%6.93%Nov 24, 2021+0.63 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct6.3%7.51%Jan 23, 2022+1.21 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct6.3%8.18%Apr 23, 2022+1.88 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct6.3%7.71%Oct 25, 2022+1.41 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect6.3%2.55%Oct 24, 2024−3.75 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Oct 24, 2026——
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 6.30% at the start of the window and 6.93% at Nov 24, 2021, a change of +0.63 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 6.30% at the start of the window and 7.51% at Jan 23, 2022, a change of +1.21 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 6.30% at the start of the window and 8.18% at Apr 23, 2022, a change of +1.88 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 6.30% at the start of the window and 7.71% at Oct 25, 2022, a change of +1.41 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 6.30% at the start of the window and 2.55% at Oct 24, 2024, a change of −3.75 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Oct 24, 2026.

What was said around it

have 100 million dollars worth of assets i don't want to sell this to you but can i pretty please take out a small loan of a million dollars at a really low interest rate they get the money they can buy whatever they want which they can then pay off or you know what they could borrow and not pay it off and then die that is how that works and by the way anyone can do this with any income because the question is well andre how much money do i have to make in order for this to make sense for me to do and here's the answer it depends and it works best when there is an expectation of inflation which is right about now all of us are expecting inflation to go up and that's why in the first part of the video i said the amount of money that's being borrowed has doubled in the last five years because the rich are expecting inflation to grow at a faster rate than the rate at which they could borrow money and so what are they doing they're borrowing money and buying more assets and or more stuff with and the other thing it really depends on is your financial situation in traditional finance there's sort of a chain of command a money ladder a flow chart if you will of steps you have to take first

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%

“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%

“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

Relayed