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Andrei Jikh: SPY will fall

Said on Feb 11, 2022, at 7:41 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“based on this theory our january for 2022 was down 6 percent which means that the stock market should be ending in red as well”
Watch at 7:41How The Super Bowl Predicts The Stock Market
PredictionSPYwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

Recorded as stock market, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.

What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$439.02

Feb 14, 2022

Price at close

$408.04

Feb 10, 2023

Total return, dividends included

−5.5%

SPY closed at $439.02 on Feb 14, 2022. On Feb 10, 2023 it closed at $408.04, a total return of −5.5% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$350$400$450$500Aug 2021Dec 2021Apr 2022Aug 2022Dec 2022Apr 2023Said on Feb 11, 2022
$350$400$450$500Aug 2021Mar 2022Sep 2022Apr 2023Said on Feb 11, 2022

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$439.02Feb 14, 2022$420.07Mar 11, 2022−4.3%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$439.02Feb 14, 2022$392.34May 12, 2022−10.4%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$439.02Feb 14, 2022$419.99Aug 10, 2022−3.6%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$439.02Feb 14, 2022$408.04Feb 10, 2023−5.5%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-DIR v4Incorrect$439.02Feb 14, 2022$604.85Feb 10, 2025+44.0%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Feb 10, 2027——
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $439.02 on Feb 14, 2022. On Mar 11, 2022 it closed at $420.07, a total return of −4.3% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $439.02 on Feb 14, 2022. On May 12, 2022 it closed at $392.34, a total return of −10.4% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $439.02 on Feb 14, 2022. On Aug 10, 2022 it closed at $419.99, a total return of −3.6% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $439.02 on Feb 14, 2022. On Feb 10, 2023 it closed at $408.04, a total return of −5.5% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $439.02 on Feb 14, 2022. On Feb 10, 2025 it closed at $604.85, a total return of +44.0% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Feb 10, 2027.

What was said around it

in on january 1st holding everything until january 31st and that's when you sold doing this between 2000 and 2017 the data shows that you would have lost 0.84 per year but there's another twist to january there's something called the january barometer and here's how it works if the month of january ends lower than where it started in the red then the rest of the year the stock market should also end in red and vice versa if january ends in the green higher than where it started then the rest of the year should also be in the green based on this theory our january for 2022 was down 6 percent which means that the stock market should be ending in red as well now is this theory actually true the answer is yes but no because the january barometer effect has been much more reliable in predicting a bull market than it has a bear market in 2017 for example in january the stock market was up only two percent but the stock market ended the year up 19 and then in 2019 january was up 8 but the year ended up 28 january has been a reliable predictor of the stock market 75 of the time since 1945. that's amazing but we also have to remember that since 1945 there have only been 17 years of the last

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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