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Andrei Jikh: Inflation will rise

Said on Feb 28, 2022, at 1:43 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“It means that inflation is most likely going to stay hot for quite a while this year before the Fed decides to step in and try to cool the economy down.”
Watch at 1:43How To Make Passive Income In A Crash
PredictionInflationwill riseby Dec 31, 2022
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

7.99%

Feb 28, 2022

Reading at close

6.15%

Feb 28, 2023

Change

−1.84 pp

Inflation stood at 7.99% at the start of the window and 6.15% at Feb 28, 2023, a change of −1.84 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Within band

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%8%10%201920202020202120222023Said on Feb 28, 2022
−5%0%5%10%2019202020222023Said on Feb 28, 2022

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct7.99%8.65%Mar 30, 2022+0.67 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct7.99%8.54%May 29, 2022+0.55 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band7.99%8.28%Aug 27, 2022+0.29 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect7.99%6.15%Feb 28, 2023−1.84 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect7.99%2.8%Feb 27, 2025−5.18 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Feb 27, 2027——
Stated deadlineR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect7.99%6.4%Dec 31, 2022−1.59 pp—
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 7.99% at the start of the window and 8.65% at Mar 30, 2022, a change of +0.67 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 7.99% at the start of the window and 8.54% at May 29, 2022, a change of +0.55 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 7.99% at the start of the window and 8.28% at Aug 27, 2022, a change of +0.29 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 7.99% at the start of the window and 6.15% at Feb 28, 2023, a change of −1.84 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 7.99% at the start of the window and 2.80% at Feb 27, 2025, a change of −5.18 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Feb 27, 2027.

Why: Stated deadline

Inflation stood at 7.99% at the start of the window and 6.40% at Dec 31, 2022, a change of −1.59 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

What was said around it

interesting data. The Federal Fund Futures Market, which you can think of it sort of like a casino, where people gamble and speculate on what they think will happen to interest rates. In other words, the cost for banks to borrow money from other banks. Right now, that market is pricing in roughly an 80% chance that the Federal Reserve would increase rates by a quarter percent. Now, just for context, earlier this month in February, the market was pricing in an 80% chance for half a percent increase. So, what does that mean? It means that inflation is most likely going to stay hot for quite a while this year before the Fed decides to step in and try to cool the economy down. And this kind of makes sense because, considering how much uncertainty there is in the world right now, Papa Powell wants to play it safe and not crash the economy. Now, when you think about all these factors and day-to-day activities that change what happens to investing, it becomes really hard to keep up with it. I can't time the market. That's why I'm constantly investing for passive income even if there's a crash. Now, we're not officially in a crash yet. We're in what's called a correction, which is anytime the stock

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

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“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

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“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

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“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

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“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

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“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

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“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

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