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Joseph Carlson: DIS will rise

Said on Apr 18, 2022, at 18:44 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“i think the parks will perform well they seem to be packed right now i think that disney plus is going to continue to grow so operationally i think the company's doing really well”
Watch at 18:44Disney Investors Should Be Worried
PredictionDISwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$131.90

Apr 19, 2022

Price at close

$100.93

Apr 18, 2023

Total return, dividends included

−23.5%

S&P 500 −5.4%

DIS closed at $131.90 on Apr 19, 2022. On Apr 18, 2023 it closed at $100.93, a total return of −23.5% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −5.4%. The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

DISWindow checked
$80$100$120$140$160$180$200Oct 2021Feb 2022Jun 2022Oct 2022Feb 2023Jun 2023Said on Apr 18, 2022
$50$100$150$200Oct 2021May 2022Nov 2022Jun 2023Said on Apr 18, 2022

DIS closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$131.90Apr 19, 2022$104.30May 18, 2022−20.9%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 −11.9%
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$131.90Apr 19, 2022$95.20Jul 15, 2022−27.8%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 −13.1%
180 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$131.90Apr 19, 2022$94.45Oct 14, 2022−28.4%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 −19.0%
1 yearR-DIR v4Incorrect$131.90Apr 19, 2022$100.93Apr 18, 2023−23.5%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 −5.4%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Incorrect$131.90Apr 19, 2022$84.81Apr 17, 2025−34.9%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +23.6%
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Apr 16, 2027——
Why: 30 days

DIS closed at $131.90 on Apr 19, 2022. On May 18, 2022 it closed at $104.30, a total return of −20.9% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −11.9%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

DIS closed at $131.90 on Apr 19, 2022. On Jul 15, 2022 it closed at $95.20, a total return of −27.8% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −13.1%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

DIS closed at $131.90 on Apr 19, 2022. On Oct 14, 2022 it closed at $94.45, a total return of −28.4% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −19.0%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

DIS closed at $131.90 on Apr 19, 2022. On Apr 18, 2023 it closed at $100.93, a total return of −23.5% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −5.4%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

DIS closed at $131.90 on Apr 19, 2022. On Apr 17, 2025 it closed at $84.81, a total return of −34.9% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +23.6%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Apr 16, 2027.

What was said around it

and objective i don't think it serves them as an entertainment company politics is a dirty game and whenever you get involved in it you're going to get muddy like everyone else i think this is damaging the reputation of disney and i think it's damaging the businesses long-term prospects and i view this as the second unforced error from bob chapeck since becoming ceo the first one was being sued by scarlett johansson so i get that he's learning the new ceo role and he does have some positive characteristics i think the parks will perform well they seem to be packed right now i think that disney plus is going to continue to grow so operationally i think the company's doing really well but when it comes to these other things these other nuanced issues like treating talent well navigating the world of politics i think that bob chapeck apparently has a lot to figure out now the next piece of news i think is positive news for everyone that's not detached from reality for a while we were going into lunacy we were going into a territory where nothing made sense we had a jack dorsey tweet nft which is essentially a screenshot of a tweet that sold for 2.9 million dollars that's real money 2.9

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Joseph CarlsonDISwill rise

“even though I believe the company's undervalued I think it will do well over the next couple of years”

Oct 9, 2023 · after 1 year

Correct+10.1%

Joseph CarlsonDISwill rise

“I believe right now Disney's undervalued I think the company can climb from this valuation with the Right Moves from management”

Oct 9, 2023 · after 1 year

Correct+10.1%

Joseph CarlsonDISwill rise

“I think they'll eventually raise more prices the numbers will improve and I think investors will give the company a better bid”

Nov 9, 2022 · after 1 year

Within band−0.1%

Joseph CarlsonDISwill rise

“I think that eventually Disney will start to have gains but I think it may take a very long period of time”

Nov 9, 2022 · after 1 year

Within band−0.1%

Joseph CarlsonDISwill rise

“I think over time we're going to see some dramatic free cash flow growth I think that Disney will be able to grow their free cash flows back up to previous levels”

Sep 30, 2022 · after 1 year

Incorrect−16.6%

Joseph CarlsonDISwill rise

“right now i still consider it heavily undervalued so i'm not doing that so i'll be holding disney until the end of this year”

Jul 19, 2022

Not scored