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Joseph Carlson: DIS will rise

Said on Oct 9, 2023, at 18:01 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“even though I believe the company's undervalued I think it will do well over the next couple of years”
Watch at 18:01Three Stocks I’m Buying Now
PredictionDISwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$84.70

Oct 9, 2023

Price at close

$92.51

Oct 8, 2024

Total return, dividends included

+10.1%

S&P 500 +34.4%

DIS closed at $84.70 on Oct 9, 2023. On Oct 8, 2024 it closed at $92.51, a total return of +10.1% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +34.4%. The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

DISWindow checked
$70$80$90$100$110$120$130Apr 2023Aug 2023Dec 2023Apr 2024Aug 2024Dec 2024Said on Oct 9, 2023
$60$80$100$120$140Apr 2023Oct 2023May 2024Dec 2024Said on Oct 9, 2023

DIS closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Within band$84.70Oct 9, 2023$84.50Nov 8, 2023−0.2%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +1.1%
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$84.70Oct 9, 2023$90.90Jan 5, 2024+7.7%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +8.7%
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$84.70Oct 9, 2023$118.38Apr 5, 2024+40.2%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +20.8%
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$84.70Oct 9, 2023$92.51Oct 8, 2024+10.1%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +34.4%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$84.70Oct 9, 2023$107.02Oct 8, 2026+30.3%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +85.6%
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Oct 6, 2028——
Why: 30 days

DIS closed at $84.70 on Oct 9, 2023. On Nov 8, 2023 it closed at $84.50, a total return of −0.2% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +1.1%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

DIS closed at $84.70 on Oct 9, 2023. On Jan 5, 2024 it closed at $90.90, a total return of +7.7% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +8.7%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

DIS closed at $84.70 on Oct 9, 2023. On Apr 5, 2024 it closed at $118.38, a total return of +40.2% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +20.8%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

DIS closed at $84.70 on Oct 9, 2023. On Oct 8, 2024 it closed at $92.51, a total return of +10.1% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +34.4%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

DIS closed at $84.70 on Oct 9, 2023. On Oct 8, 2026 it closed at $107.02, a total return of +30.3% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +85.6%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Oct 6, 2028.

What was said around it

think the company can climb from this valuation with the Right Moves from management and I agree with a lot of the arguments that Nelson pelts makes the reason that I will remain out of this stock is because one of the things that I've been looking at the most with my Holdings is predictability I want to own companies that I'm incredibly confident that the outcome is highly predictable and because Disney has proven to be so incredibly unpredictable over the past five years it doesn't meet that high standard of predictability so as of right now even though I believe the company's undervalued I think it will do well over the next couple of years the level of unpredictability in this business causes me to stay out of it now moving on we get to this fascinating story that's on the subject of retail crime we know that retail crime has been a growing problem over the past couple of months we've gone over stories in fact I've been covering the subject of companies like Target saying that retail crime is taking out hundreds of millions of dollars of earnings they could be paying this money as dividends to investors dividends to people's 401K but instead it's going to organized retail crime

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Joseph CarlsonDISwill rise

“I believe right now Disney's undervalued I think the company can climb from this valuation with the Right Moves from management”

Oct 9, 2023 · after 1 year

Correct+10.1%

Joseph CarlsonDISwill rise

“I think they'll eventually raise more prices the numbers will improve and I think investors will give the company a better bid”

Nov 9, 2022 · after 1 year

Within band−0.1%

Joseph CarlsonDISwill rise

“I think that eventually Disney will start to have gains but I think it may take a very long period of time”

Nov 9, 2022 · after 1 year

Within band−0.1%

Joseph CarlsonDISwill rise

“I think over time we're going to see some dramatic free cash flow growth I think that Disney will be able to grow their free cash flows back up to previous levels”

Sep 30, 2022 · after 1 year

Incorrect−16.6%

Joseph CarlsonDISwill rise

“right now i still consider it heavily undervalued so i'm not doing that so i'll be holding disney until the end of this year”

Jul 19, 2022

Not scored

Joseph CarlsonDISwill rise

“as of right now i'm bullish on disney as a business but i'm not bullish on their management”

Jul 19, 2022

Not scored