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Joseph Carlson: DIS will rise

Said on Sep 30, 2022, at 28:51 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“I think over time we're going to see some dramatic free cash flow growth I think that Disney will be able to grow their free cash flows back up to previous levels”
Watch at 28:51This Is When I'll Buy These Companies | Joseph Carlson Ep. 275
PredictionDISwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$97.13

Oct 3, 2022

Price at close

$81.05

Sep 29, 2023

Total return, dividends included

−16.6%

S&P 500 +18.4%

DIS closed at $97.13 on Oct 3, 2022. On Sep 29, 2023 it closed at $81.05, a total return of −16.6% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +18.4%. The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Within band

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

DISWindow checked
$70$80$90$100$110$120$130$140Apr 2022Aug 2022Dec 2022Apr 2023Jul 2023Nov 2023Said on Sep 30, 2022
$60$80$100$120$140Apr 2022Oct 2022May 2023Nov 2023Said on Sep 30, 2022

DIS closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$97.13Oct 3, 2022$105.95Oct 28, 2022+9.1%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +6.1%
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$97.13Oct 3, 2022$87.18Dec 29, 2022−10.2%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +5.1%
180 daysR-DIR v4Within band$97.13Oct 3, 2022$96.87Mar 29, 2023−0.3%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +10.4%
1 yearR-DIR v4Incorrect$97.13Oct 3, 2022$81.05Sep 29, 2023−16.6%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +18.4%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$97.13Oct 3, 2022$114.78Sep 29, 2025+20.1%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +88.6%
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Sep 29, 2027——
Why: 30 days

DIS closed at $97.13 on Oct 3, 2022. On Oct 28, 2022 it closed at $105.95, a total return of +9.1% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +6.1%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

DIS closed at $97.13 on Oct 3, 2022. On Dec 29, 2022 it closed at $87.18, a total return of −10.2% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +5.1%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

DIS closed at $97.13 on Oct 3, 2022. On Mar 29, 2023 it closed at $96.87, a total return of −0.3% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +10.4%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

DIS closed at $97.13 on Oct 3, 2022. On Sep 29, 2023 it closed at $81.05, a total return of −16.6% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +18.4%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

DIS closed at $97.13 on Oct 3, 2022. On Sep 29, 2025 it closed at $114.78, a total return of +20.1% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +88.6%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 29, 2027.

What was said around it

massive hit that both Co and the streaming service has taken on the company but again this isn't money that's all being wasted this is money being invested in Disney Plus in Disney hot star and ESPN Plus in all of their streaming Ventures they're also buying Hulu they bought the Fox Media properties and they have a lot of tools to work with and now they're building out this direct to Consumer distribution Network to replace their cable Ventures they're increasing prices they're operating their Parks efficiently and I think over time we're going to see some dramatic free cash flow growth I think that Disney will be able to grow their free cash flows back up to previous levels the question for Disney's shareholders is how quickly that will happen and how quickly the cable side of things will erode because Disney does have a declining Cable business and the Cable business has really good economics so as the Cable business is declining they're having to fight this uphill battle of growing their streaming business but I think Disney will be able to ultimately do it because of their brand and franchise strength now this company is one that I actually consider to be higher risk than most the

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Joseph CarlsonDISwill rise

“even though I believe the company's undervalued I think it will do well over the next couple of years”

Oct 9, 2023 · after 1 year

Correct+10.1%

Joseph CarlsonDISwill rise

“I believe right now Disney's undervalued I think the company can climb from this valuation with the Right Moves from management”

Oct 9, 2023 · after 1 year

Correct+10.1%

Joseph CarlsonDISwill rise

“I think they'll eventually raise more prices the numbers will improve and I think investors will give the company a better bid”

Nov 9, 2022 · after 1 year

Within band−0.1%

Joseph CarlsonDISwill rise

“I think that eventually Disney will start to have gains but I think it may take a very long period of time”

Nov 9, 2022 · after 1 year

Within band−0.1%

Joseph CarlsonDISwill rise

“right now i still consider it heavily undervalued so i'm not doing that so i'll be holding disney until the end of this year”

Jul 19, 2022

Not scored

Joseph CarlsonDISwill rise

“as of right now i'm bullish on disney as a business but i'm not bullish on their management”

Jul 19, 2022

Not scored