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Joseph Carlson: DIS will rise

Said on Nov 9, 2022, at 18:23 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“I think that eventually Disney will start to have gains but I think it may take a very long period of time”
Watch at 18:23Why Investors Are Panic Selling Disney (-13% Today)
PredictionDISwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Within band

Entry price (first close after the video)

$90.46

Nov 10, 2022

Price at close

$90.34

Nov 9, 2023

Total return, dividends included

−0.1%

S&P 500 +11.6%

DIS closed at $90.46 on Nov 10, 2022. On Nov 9, 2023 it closed at $90.34, a total return of −0.1% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +11.6%. The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Within band

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

DISWindow checked
$70$80$90$100$110$120$130May 2022Sep 2022Jan 2023May 2023Sep 2023Jan 2024Said on Nov 9, 2022
$60$80$100$120$140May 2022Dec 2022Jun 2023Jan 2024Said on Nov 9, 2022

DIS closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$90.46Nov 10, 2022$93.38Dec 9, 2022+3.2%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 −0.4%
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$90.46Nov 10, 2022$111.63Feb 7, 2023+23.4%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +5.7%
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$90.46Nov 10, 2022$102.97May 8, 2023+13.8%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +5.5%
1 yearR-DIR v4Within band$90.46Nov 10, 2022$90.34Nov 9, 2023−0.1%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +11.6%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$90.46Nov 10, 2022$110.74Nov 7, 2025+24.5%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +77.1%
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Nov 8, 2027——
Why: 30 days

DIS closed at $90.46 on Nov 10, 2022. On Dec 9, 2022 it closed at $93.38, a total return of +3.2% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −0.4%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

DIS closed at $90.46 on Nov 10, 2022. On Feb 7, 2023 it closed at $111.63, a total return of +23.4% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +5.7%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

DIS closed at $90.46 on Nov 10, 2022. On May 8, 2023 it closed at $102.97, a total return of +13.8% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +5.5%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

DIS closed at $90.46 on Nov 10, 2022. On Nov 9, 2023 it closed at $90.34, a total return of −0.1% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +11.6%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

DIS closed at $90.46 on Nov 10, 2022. On Nov 7, 2025 it closed at $110.74, a total return of +24.5% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +77.1%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Nov 8, 2027.

What was said around it

Disney is not so magical over the past 10 years the company's now priced the same way it was in two thousand 14 and it's interesting to see that happen with a company that has such incredible brand assets I think the pivotal moment here of where it really hurt Disney is their transition in business model anytime a company has to transition dramatically what they're doing as a company that's something to be wary of because I think like in this case the transition can take a lot longer than expected and it can be a lot more expensive than expected I think that eventually Disney will start to have gains but I think it may take a very long period of time Disney right now is making major investments in streaming and it's going to take a long time for those to pay off if we look at the Historical roce of this company historically it's been in the range of 14 16 18 which is decent not amazing but decent and then in 2019 it dropped to seven percent then in 2020 and 2021 it's at two percent the company is doing major Investments That simply as of now have not paid off so in terms of what I'm doing with Disney right now as of right now I'm holding I want to hold this company and tell at least we get

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Joseph CarlsonDISwill rise

“even though I believe the company's undervalued I think it will do well over the next couple of years”

Oct 9, 2023 · after 1 year

Correct+10.1%

Joseph CarlsonDISwill rise

“I believe right now Disney's undervalued I think the company can climb from this valuation with the Right Moves from management”

Oct 9, 2023 · after 1 year

Correct+10.1%

Joseph CarlsonDISwill rise

“I think they'll eventually raise more prices the numbers will improve and I think investors will give the company a better bid”

Nov 9, 2022 · after 1 year

Within band−0.1%

Joseph CarlsonDISwill rise

“I think over time we're going to see some dramatic free cash flow growth I think that Disney will be able to grow their free cash flows back up to previous levels”

Sep 30, 2022 · after 1 year

Incorrect−16.6%

Joseph CarlsonDISwill rise

“right now i still consider it heavily undervalued so i'm not doing that so i'll be holding disney until the end of this year”

Jul 19, 2022

Not scored

Joseph CarlsonDISwill rise

“as of right now i'm bullish on disney as a business but i'm not bullish on their management”

Jul 19, 2022

Not scored