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Joseph Carlson: COST will rise

Said on Oct 19, 2021, at 12:59 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“when i look at costco there's only one direction this company is going it's going up this company is only going to become bigger more expensive and a more powerful company”
Watch at 12:59Apple Did It Again... The Apple Event Explained | Joseph Carlson Ep. 190
PredictionCOSTwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$467.08

Oct 19, 2021

Price at close

$471.43

Oct 19, 2022

Total return, dividends included

+1.6%

S&P 500 −17.0%

COST closed at $467.08 on Oct 19, 2021. On Oct 19, 2022 it closed at $471.43, a total return of +1.6% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −17.0%. The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

COSTWindow checked
$350$400$450$500$550$600$650Apr 2021Aug 2021Dec 2021Apr 2022Aug 2022Dec 2022Said on Oct 19, 2021
$300$400$500$600$700Apr 2021Nov 2021May 2022Dec 2022Said on Oct 19, 2021

COST closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$467.08Oct 19, 2021$529.37Nov 18, 2021+13.5%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +4.2%
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$467.08Oct 19, 2021$502.99Jan 14, 2022+7.9%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +3.5%
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$467.08Oct 19, 2021$590.39Apr 14, 2022+26.8%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 −2.2%
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$467.08Oct 19, 2021$471.43Oct 19, 2022+1.6%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 −17.0%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$467.08Oct 19, 2021$889.56Oct 18, 2024+98.8%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +35.6%
5 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$467.08Oct 19, 2021$989.11Oct 16, 2026+123.5%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +81.1%
Why: 30 days

COST closed at $467.08 on Oct 19, 2021. On Nov 18, 2021 it closed at $529.37, a total return of +13.5% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +4.2%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

COST closed at $467.08 on Oct 19, 2021. On Jan 14, 2022 it closed at $502.99, a total return of +7.9% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +3.5%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

COST closed at $467.08 on Oct 19, 2021. On Apr 14, 2022 it closed at $590.39, a total return of +26.8% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −2.2%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

COST closed at $467.08 on Oct 19, 2021. On Oct 19, 2022 it closed at $471.43, a total return of +1.6% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −17.0%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

COST closed at $467.08 on Oct 19, 2021. On Oct 18, 2024 it closed at $889.56, a total return of +98.8% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +35.6%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

COST closed at $467.08 on Oct 19, 2021. On Oct 16, 2026 it closed at $989.11, a total return of +123.5% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +81.1%. The call was that it would rise.

What was said around it

lot of companies it's much higher than targets or home depots or disney costco trades at a premium and yet i sold out of dominion energy and next air energy to increase my position in costco despite its high price and i want to explain why my focus when i invest in companies has simply moved to a more long-term focus i'm not looking at companies over the next couple of quarters or even over the next couple of years i'm looking at them at a 10-year horizon where do i think this company will be in 2030 or 2040. when i look at costco there's only one direction this company is going it's going up this company is only going to become bigger more expensive and a more powerful company i see so many characteristics that i love with this company that i frankly cannot find in other investments they just don't exist in that many investments the first thing is that costco continues to grow and this is important companies need to continue growth in order to well to grow their revenue and to grow their earnings per share it's important for companies to continue to grow costco grows in a couple different ways one of them is that they open up 25 to 30 new stores per year i estimate that over the next

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Joseph Carlsona call under review

“Maybe will be the exception maybe Costco will drop 40 50% but I think that that's unlikely”

Mar 8, 2024

Not scored

Joseph CarlsonCOSTwill fall

“the stock price is up like crazy over the past month so maybe we'll have a bit of a pullback I'm sure we will at some point but this is one that I'm going to hang on to”

Dec 18, 2023

Not scored

Joseph CarlsonCOSTwill rise

“I think it has a great future I'm extremely bullish on Costco as a company”

Apr 14, 2023 · after 1 year

Correct+53.3%

Joseph CarlsonCOSTwill outperform

“I think that it will outperform the General market over the next 10 years despite its seemingly high price and high p e ratio right now”

Apr 10, 2023

Not scored

Joseph CarlsonCOSTwill rise

“I think the company will be two or three times as big in the next 20 to 30 years and I think it will give stable returns to investors over that time period”

Dec 22, 2022 · after 1 year

Correct+46.3%

Joseph Carlsona call with no clear direction

“in my opinion Costco will not be the fastest growing company in the market it won't be the best performing company in the market but it will be in my opinion a market beating company over the next 20 years I think it will outperform the S&P 500 over a 20-year basis”

Sep 30, 2022

Not scored