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Joseph Carlson: COST will rise

Said on Dec 22, 2022, at 27:46 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“I think the company will be two or three times as big in the next 20 to 30 years and I think it will give stable returns to investors over that time period”
Watch at 27:465 Stocks I’m Buying In A Panic | Joseph Carlson Ep. 296
PredictionCOSTwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$462.65

Dec 23, 2022

Price at close

$671.60

Dec 22, 2023

Total return, dividends included

+46.3%

S&P 500 +25.6%

COST closed at $462.65 on Dec 23, 2022. On Dec 22, 2023 it closed at $671.60, a total return of +46.3% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +25.6%. The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

COSTWindow checked
$400$500$600$700$800Jun 2022Oct 2022Feb 2023Jun 2023Oct 2023Feb 2024Said on Dec 22, 2022
$400$500$600$700$800Jun 2022Jan 2023Aug 2023Feb 2024Said on Dec 22, 2022

COST closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$462.65Dec 23, 2022$480.11Jan 20, 2023+3.8%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +3.4%
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$462.65Dec 23, 2022$487.52Mar 22, 2023+5.6%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +2.8%
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$462.65Dec 23, 2022$519.70Jun 20, 2023+12.8%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +15.0%
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$462.65Dec 23, 2022$671.60Dec 22, 2023+46.3%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +25.6%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$462.65Dec 23, 2022$855.62Dec 19, 2025+92.7%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +84.9%
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Dec 21, 2027——
Why: 30 days

COST closed at $462.65 on Dec 23, 2022. On Jan 20, 2023 it closed at $480.11, a total return of +3.8% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +3.4%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

COST closed at $462.65 on Dec 23, 2022. On Mar 22, 2023 it closed at $487.52, a total return of +5.6% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +2.8%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

COST closed at $462.65 on Dec 23, 2022. On Jun 20, 2023 it closed at $519.70, a total return of +12.8% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +15.0%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

COST closed at $462.65 on Dec 23, 2022. On Dec 22, 2023 it closed at $671.60, a total return of +46.3% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +25.6%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

COST closed at $462.65 on Dec 23, 2022. On Dec 19, 2025 it closed at $855.62, a total return of +92.7% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +84.9%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Dec 21, 2027.

What was said around it

moving from 2015 18 it's above a 20 percent so they're actually increasing the amount of Returns on Capital employee that they have as time goes on this is a sign of incredibly good discipline from the management they will only invest your money into things that have high expected future returns so this is a company where you're not going to get the best returns in a six-month period I don't think that Costco is going to raise up 2 and 3X anytime soon but it's one that I think has low downside a very long Runway of growth I think the company will be two or three times as big in the next 20 to 30 years and I think it will give stable returns to investors over that time period so that rounds out my top five picks for 2023. maybe I'll do a video next year that shows a follow-up of what happened that would be interesting to see so that's all for now if you enjoyed this episode you can head over to the patreon to join us to have more content more exclusive videos most of them are an hour long they're a bit more relaxed it's just me answering questions talking with the community here it's a lot of fun and you get access to qualtrim which is that that whole Suite of software and best yet there's

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Joseph Carlsona call under review

“Maybe will be the exception maybe Costco will drop 40 50% but I think that that's unlikely”

Mar 8, 2024

Not scored

Joseph CarlsonCOSTwill fall

“the stock price is up like crazy over the past month so maybe we'll have a bit of a pullback I'm sure we will at some point but this is one that I'm going to hang on to”

Dec 18, 2023

Not scored

Joseph CarlsonCOSTwill rise

“I think it has a great future I'm extremely bullish on Costco as a company”

Apr 14, 2023 · after 1 year

Correct+53.3%

Joseph CarlsonCOSTwill outperform

“I think that it will outperform the General market over the next 10 years despite its seemingly high price and high p e ratio right now”

Apr 10, 2023

Not scored

Joseph Carlsona call with no clear direction

“in my opinion Costco will not be the fastest growing company in the market it won't be the best performing company in the market but it will be in my opinion a market beating company over the next 20 years I think it will outperform the S&P 500 over a 20-year basis”

Sep 30, 2022

Not scored

Joseph CarlsonCOST— a company event

“i have a strong expectation that since they open up the same amount of stores every single year 25 to 30 and their capex spending isn't going to be increased in fact it's going to play a smaller portion of their revenue that they have to increase the amount of dividends that they're paying either on a quarterly basis or the special dividends”

Oct 19, 2021 · after 1 year

Not verifiable