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Andrei Jikh: Inflation will rise

Said on Aug 14, 2023, at 12:46 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“now in the short term this means higher prices it just does more inflation because U.S workers are more expensive and if companies have to pay their workers more they have to raise their prices”
Watch at 12:46China’s Economy Just Flipped - What It Means For You
PredictionInflationwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

3.6%

Aug 14, 2023

Reading at close

2.56%

Aug 13, 2024

Change

−1.04 pp

Inflation stood at 3.60% at the start of the window and 2.56% at Aug 13, 2024, a change of −1.04 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Within band

180 days

Within band

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
0%2%4%6%8%10%202020212022202320242024Said on Aug 14, 2023
0%5%10%2020202220232024Said on Aug 14, 2023

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band3.6%3.61%Sep 13, 2023+0.01 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band3.6%3.21%Nov 12, 2023−0.40 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band3.6%3.12%Feb 10, 2024−0.48 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect3.6%2.56%Aug 13, 2024−1.04 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band3.6%3.33%Aug 13, 2026−0.27 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Aug 12, 2028——
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 3.60% at the start of the window and 3.61% at Sep 13, 2023, a change of +0.01 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 3.60% at the start of the window and 3.21% at Nov 12, 2023, a change of −0.40 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 3.60% at the start of the window and 3.12% at Feb 10, 2024, a change of −0.48 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 3.60% at the start of the window and 2.56% at Aug 13, 2024, a change of −1.04 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 3.60% at the start of the window and 3.33% at Aug 13, 2026, a change of −0.27 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 12, 2028.

What was said around it

that already own those assets like the billionaires the multi-millionaires the rich YouTubers but for the people that haven't had the chance to buy them yet that would put them so much farther Out Of Reach which is really bad now I do want to be fair and balanced and show you that there are actually benefits to this as well arguably the biggest of which is more manufacturing jobs would return to the US which would make it less dependent on Chinese labor and it would make the US economy more resilient now in the short term this means higher prices it just does more inflation because U.S workers are more expensive and if companies have to pay their workers more they have to raise their prices now some people argue that is a price worth paying for if it means having a future that's more secure with more jobs now if you think about it from all sides though the downside of doing this is it could speed up automation as companies rush to lower those costs back down so they could stay competitive in the global market they would have to increase Automation and replace workers with robots and AI so in the long term it could actually be bad unless of course the US finds another partner to trade

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%

“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%

“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

Relayed