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Joseph Carlson: COST will fall

Said on Sep 20, 2021, at 5:03 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“i would love for costco to go down 10 that would be a very fortunate event because i've been looking to buy more and more of this company”
Watch at 5:03The Evergrande Sell Off Has Started | Joseph Carlson Ep. 184
PredictionCOSTwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$451.14

Sep 20, 2021

Price at close

$499.52

Sep 20, 2022

Total return, dividends included

+11.4%

S&P 500 −10.2%

COST closed at $451.14 on Sep 20, 2021. On Sep 20, 2022 it closed at $499.52, a total return of +11.4% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −10.2%. The call was that it would fall.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

COSTWindow checked
$300$400$500$600$700Mar 2021Jul 2021Nov 2021Mar 2022Jul 2022Nov 2022Said on Sep 20, 2021
$300$400$500$600$700Mar 2021Oct 2021Apr 2022Nov 2022Said on Sep 20, 2021

COST closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$451.14Sep 20, 2021$469.77Oct 20, 2021+4.1%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +4.2%
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$451.14Sep 20, 2021$547.61Dec 17, 2021+21.6%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +6.3%
180 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$451.14Sep 20, 2021$561.35Mar 18, 2022+24.8%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +3.1%
1 yearR-DIR v4Incorrect$451.14Sep 20, 2021$499.52Sep 20, 2022+11.4%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 −10.2%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Incorrect$451.14Sep 20, 2021$900.74Sep 19, 2024+108.4%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +37.1%
5 yearsR-DIR v4Incorrect$451.14Sep 20, 2021$895.31Sep 18, 2026+109.4%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +87.6%
Why: 30 days

COST closed at $451.14 on Sep 20, 2021. On Oct 20, 2021 it closed at $469.77, a total return of +4.1% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +4.2%. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 90 days

COST closed at $451.14 on Sep 20, 2021. On Dec 17, 2021 it closed at $547.61, a total return of +21.6% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +6.3%. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 180 days

COST closed at $451.14 on Sep 20, 2021. On Mar 18, 2022 it closed at $561.35, a total return of +24.8% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +3.1%. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 1 year

COST closed at $451.14 on Sep 20, 2021. On Sep 20, 2022 it closed at $499.52, a total return of +11.4% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −10.2%. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 3 years

COST closed at $451.14 on Sep 20, 2021. On Sep 19, 2024 it closed at $900.74, a total return of +108.4% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +37.1%. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 5 years

COST closed at $451.14 on Sep 20, 2021. On Sep 18, 2026 it closed at $895.31, a total return of +109.4% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +87.6%. The call was that it would fall.

What was said around it

costco goes down in price at all or home depot that things are bad these companies typically go in one direction and that's up costco continues to go up home depot continues to go up and it takes a lot to pry these shares out of investors hands they don't want to sell these shares so when people are selling out of costco or home depot i think it's typically the result of people just selling out of etfs that happen to hold these companies because i rarely see individual investors selling their shares of costco and home depot and i would love for costco to go down 10 that would be a very fortunate event because i've been looking to buy more and more of this company but it rarely goes on sale so i might take any little dip that i get with costco as an opportunity to buy more of this company now regardless if we look outside of costco and home depot we have nike down one percent we have comcast down one percent target down one percent disney is the biggest loser today down two point three percent we have the real estate category that doesn't seem to be having a sell-off let's take a look at it the malls are down a little bit simon property is down 1.3 percent but then we have vichy and mgm

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Joseph Carlsona call under review

“Maybe will be the exception maybe Costco will drop 40 50% but I think that that's unlikely”

Mar 8, 2024

Not scored

Joseph CarlsonCOSTwill fall

“the stock price is up like crazy over the past month so maybe we'll have a bit of a pullback I'm sure we will at some point but this is one that I'm going to hang on to”

Dec 18, 2023

Not scored

Joseph CarlsonCOSTwill rise

“I think it has a great future I'm extremely bullish on Costco as a company”

Apr 14, 2023 · after 1 year

Correct+53.3%

Joseph CarlsonCOSTwill outperform

“I think that it will outperform the General market over the next 10 years despite its seemingly high price and high p e ratio right now”

Apr 10, 2023

Not scored

Joseph CarlsonCOSTwill rise

“I think the company will be two or three times as big in the next 20 to 30 years and I think it will give stable returns to investors over that time period”

Dec 22, 2022 · after 1 year

Correct+46.3%

Joseph Carlsona call with no clear direction

“in my opinion Costco will not be the fastest growing company in the market it won't be the best performing company in the market but it will be in my opinion a market beating company over the next 20 years I think it will outperform the S&P 500 over a 20-year basis”

Sep 30, 2022

Not scored