Said on Jul 29, 2022, at 13:45 in the video.
“And it'll probably take anywhere between 12 to 18 months for everything to really start to cool off”Not verifiable: target off scale. The target, 12, was recorded as an index level or a number of points, and CPIAUCSL is a percentage change year on year, so the two are not on one scale.
30 days
Not verifiable
90 days
Not verifiable
180 days
Not verifiable
1 year
Not verifiable
Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
| Window | Result | At the start | At the end | Change | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4 | Not verifiable | — | — | — | — |
| 90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4 | Not verifiable | — | — | — | — |
| 180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4 | Not verifiable | — | — | — | — |
| 1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4 | Not verifiable | — | — | — | — |
| 3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4 | Not verifiable | — | — | — | — |
| 5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4 | Not verifiable | — | — | — | — |
Not verifiable: target off scale. The target, 12, was recorded as an index level or a number of points, and CPIAUCSL is a percentage change year on year, so the two are not on one scale.
Not verifiable: target off scale. The target, 12, was recorded as an index level or a number of points, and CPIAUCSL is a percentage change year on year, so the two are not on one scale.
Not verifiable: target off scale. The target, 12, was recorded as an index level or a number of points, and CPIAUCSL is a percentage change year on year, so the two are not on one scale.
Not verifiable: target off scale. The target, 12, was recorded as an index level or a number of points, and CPIAUCSL is a percentage change year on year, so the two are not on one scale.
Not verifiable: target off scale. The target, 12, was recorded as an index level or a number of points, and CPIAUCSL is a percentage change year on year, so the two are not on one scale.
Not verifiable: target off scale. The target, 12, was recorded as an index level or a number of points, and CPIAUCSL is a percentage change year on year, so the two are not on one scale.
recession and how it's perceived. We don't want to scare people. We don't want to scare employers into stopping hiring people or letting people go because that would be very bad. So instead, the takeaway that I have for myself is that so far this year, there are plenty jobs still out there, and life is still becoming more expensive because inflation's still going up, and therefore interest rates are going up. So, it's a lot more expensive to borrow money. Therefore, consumer spending is going to have to come down, which it already started doing. And it'll probably take anywhere between 12 to 18 months for everything to really start to cool off because think about it. Everything we feel now in terms of inflation is because of the stimulus that happened 12 to 18 months ago. That was a while back. So, just like we're experiencing the crunch of interest rates going up, that won't be felt until a while from now. The middle of next year to the end of next year, I'd say, is when we really start to feel the effects of all the slowdown. But regardless of what happens, I'm still going to continue to dollar cost average into the market and definitely lower my spending. As always, have a wonderful
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction
“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”
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“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”
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Graham Stephana call under review
“First, taxes are going up.”
Jun 1, 2026
Graham Stephana call with no clear direction
“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”
May 18, 2026
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“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”
Apr 20, 2026
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“the Federal Reserve's recent summary of economic projections insists that inflation will magically settle at just 2.7% over the exact same time frame.”
Apr 9, 2026
