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Andrei Jikh: Inflation will fall

Said on May 2, 2022, at 12:24 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“for inflation that's hopefully a good thing because it means that the cost to live our lives will go down”
Watch at 12:24The Recession Just Started | How Not To Lose Money
PredictionInflationwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

8.54%

May 2, 2022

Reading at close

4.06%

May 2, 2023

Change

−4.48 pp

Inflation stood at 8.54% at the start of the window and 4.06% at May 2, 2023, a change of −4.48 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Within band

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%8%10%201920202021202120222023Said on May 2, 2022
−5%0%5%10%2019202020222023Said on May 2, 2022

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band8.54%8.98%Jun 1, 2022+0.45 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band8.54%8.45%Jul 31, 2022−0.09 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.54%7.71%Oct 29, 2022−0.82 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.54%4.06%May 2, 2023−4.48 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.54%2.35%May 1, 2025−6.19 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——May 1, 2027——
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 8.54% at the start of the window and 8.98% at Jun 1, 2022, a change of +0.45 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 8.54% at the start of the window and 8.45% at Jul 31, 2022, a change of −0.09 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 8.54% at the start of the window and 7.71% at Oct 29, 2022, a change of −0.82 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 8.54% at the start of the window and 4.06% at May 2, 2023, a change of −4.48 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 8.54% at the start of the window and 2.35% at May 1, 2025, a change of −6.19 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 1, 2027.

What was said around it

could see a huge rotation out of stocks which is where the other 50 plus percent will come from falling in the stock market and maybe a huge rotation into bonds as their rates go up so i guess we'll see what happens but all of this is from an investment perspective and i think more important than investing is how a recession could affect our daily lives so far all the predictions and all the estimates i've given you are based under the assumption that the federal fund rate will be at 300 basis points by the end of this year or three percent now for inflation that's hopefully a good thing because it means that the cost to live our lives will go down but unfortunately that's not a 100 given either because there's a few things we just can't shake and can't make inflation go away and the first is that when interest rates go up it also means that companies have a harder time borrowing cheap money and they could easily pass on those costs to their consumers right the second thing is the conflict in ukraine if that goes on longer than we thought and if we get even more involved that's also not going to help with inflation the third is supply chain problems like we're seeing in china once again

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

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“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

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Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

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Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%

“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

Relayed