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Andrei Jikh: SPY will fall

Said on May 13, 2022, at 10:48 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“based on this historical data the market will probably go down even more so just expect the worst and be prepared for it this is not the end of it”
Watch at 10:48The Everything Crash Is Here | Why It Will Get Worse
PredictionSPYwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

Recorded as the market, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.

What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$400.09

May 16, 2022

Price at close

$411.59

May 12, 2023

Total return, dividends included

+4.6%

SPY closed at $400.09 on May 16, 2022. On May 12, 2023 it closed at $411.59, a total return of +4.6% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Correct

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$350$400$450$500Nov 2021Mar 2022Jul 2022Nov 2022Mar 2023Jul 2023Said on May 13, 2022
$350$400$450$500Nov 2021Jun 2022Dec 2022Jul 2023Said on May 13, 2022

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$400.09May 16, 2022$389.80Jun 10, 2022−2.6%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$400.09May 16, 2022$419.99Aug 11, 2022+5.4%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$400.09May 16, 2022$374.13Nov 9, 2022−5.7%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-DIR v4Incorrect$400.09May 16, 2022$411.59May 12, 2023+4.6%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-DIR v4Incorrect$400.09May 16, 2022$582.99May 12, 2025+52.2%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——May 12, 2027——
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $400.09 on May 16, 2022. On Jun 10, 2022 it closed at $389.80, a total return of −2.6% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $400.09 on May 16, 2022. On Aug 11, 2022 it closed at $419.99, a total return of +5.4% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $400.09 on May 16, 2022. On Nov 9, 2022 it closed at $374.13, a total return of −5.7% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $400.09 on May 16, 2022. On May 12, 2023 it closed at $411.59, a total return of +4.6% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $400.09 on May 16, 2022. On May 12, 2025 it closed at $582.99, a total return of +52.2% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 12, 2027.

What was said around it

when he's helping and it hates when he's not if you look at all the times we've had quantitative easing you'll see the stock market is always positive when we have periods of quantitative tightening like the three month period from october to december 2018 we lost almost 14 in a short three-month period so come june first papa powell has told us that's going to be the start of the qt period quantitative tightening when the fed will start to unload its portfolio of assets and that's when the market's not gonna like that and based on this historical data the market will probably go down even more so just expect the worst and be prepared for it this is not the end of it that's also why in the fedwatch tool website it's backing us up because this year we will have five more fed meetings where the fed will increase our rates anywhere between a quarter to a half a percent which they've already done at the beginning of this month they raised it by half a percent which was the biggest increase in the last 22 years once again the market does not like that and it goes down so that's june 1st so just be prepared that's what's going on and now let me leave you with some words of encouragement and

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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