Andrei Jikh: SPY will fall

Said on Sep 18, 2024, at 13:18 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“my gut feeling is that initially the stock market will go down and that's because I think the rate Cuts have already been priced in so I think it will be a buy the rumor sell the news kind of thing”
Watch at 13:18The Fed Just Changed Everything - What You Need To Know NOW!
PredictionSPYwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

Recorded as stock market, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.

What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$561.40

Sep 18, 2024

Price at close

$662.26

Sep 18, 2025

Total return, dividends included

+19.4%

SPY closed at $561.40 on Sep 18, 2024. On Sep 18, 2025 it closed at $662.26, a total return of +19.4% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$450$500$550$600$650$700Mar 2024Jul 2024Nov 2024Mar 2025Jul 2025Nov 2025Said on Sep 18, 2024
$450$500$550$600$650$700Mar 2024Oct 2024Apr 2025Nov 2025Said on Sep 18, 2024

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$561.40Sep 18, 2024$584.59Oct 18, 2024+4.5%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$561.40Sep 18, 2024$604.29Dec 17, 2024+8.0%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$561.40Sep 18, 2024$567.15Mar 17, 2025+1.7%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-DIR v4Incorrect$561.40Sep 18, 2024$662.26Sep 18, 2025+19.4%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Sep 17, 2027——
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Sep 17, 2029——
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $561.40 on Sep 18, 2024. On Oct 18, 2024 it closed at $584.59, a total return of +4.5% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $561.40 on Sep 18, 2024. On Dec 17, 2024 it closed at $604.29, a total return of +8.0% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $561.40 on Sep 18, 2024. On Mar 17, 2025 it closed at $567.15, a total return of +1.7% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $561.40 on Sep 18, 2024. On Sep 18, 2025 it closed at $662.26, a total return of +19.4% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 17, 2027.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 17, 2029.

What was said around it

should also start to come down and credit cards by the way which are directly linked to the federal fund rates saw an average rate drop from 177% in 2019 to around 14% by mid 2020 after those rate Cuts either way though experts say you should never carry a balance and instead they say you should transfer to a 0% APR offer and aggressively pay down your high interest rate debt now if you made it this far into the video here's my personal opinion and how I'm going to invest when it comes to stocks my gut feeling is that initially the stock market will go down and that's because I think the rate Cuts have already been priced in so I think it will be a buy the rumor sell the news kind of thing in the long term I can't argue with the data that says over the next 12 months the stock market goes up in 86% of cases so unless something happens outside of what we know about then it should go up and for Bitcoin I think the next 12 months are going to be super interesting because Bitcoin tends to lag behind Gold's performance so first gold goes up and then Bitcoin goes up not in all cases but I think Bitcoin is significantly undervalued relative to Gold's market cap so personally here's how I've

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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