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Andrei Jikh: Inflation will fall

Said on Aug 29, 2022, at 4:02 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“the most recent pce reading was 6.4 which suggests that inflation should finally hopefully start to come down”
Watch at 4:02The Recession Just Got WORSE
PredictionInflationwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

8.28%

Aug 29, 2022

Reading at close

3.6%

Aug 29, 2023

Change

−4.68 pp

Inflation stood at 8.28% at the start of the window and 3.60% at Aug 29, 2023, a change of −4.68 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%8%10%201920202021202220232023Said on Aug 29, 2022
−5%0%5%10%2019202120222023Said on Aug 29, 2022

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band8.28%8.25%Sep 28, 2022−0.03 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.28%6.98%Nov 27, 2022−1.30 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.28%6.15%Feb 25, 2023−2.13 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.28%3.6%Aug 29, 2023−4.68 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.28%2.94%Aug 28, 2025−5.34 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Aug 28, 2027——
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 8.28% at the start of the window and 8.25% at Sep 28, 2022, a change of −0.03 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 8.28% at the start of the window and 6.98% at Nov 27, 2022, a change of −1.30 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 8.28% at the start of the window and 6.15% at Feb 25, 2023, a change of −2.13 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 8.28% at the start of the window and 3.60% at Aug 29, 2023, a change of −4.68 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 8.28% at the start of the window and 2.94% at Aug 28, 2025, a change of −5.34 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 28, 2027.

What was said around it

market goes though it's also down a lot thanks to what jerome powell said which is thanks to what's called the pce the personal consumption expenditures i don't know why they give them such fancy names and why can't they just call it the price change of the stuff we buy because that's what it is now remember in june we set a 40-year record high of 6.8 now remember we're always one month behind every time we get the data so when we got it in june that was maze data right and that's coincidentally when gas prices were extremely expensive but the most recent pce reading was 6.4 which suggests that inflation should finally hopefully start to come down but remember that's also data from july now the bad news is that pce is still 6.4 percent and that means we are very far away from the fed's target rate of 2 now the even worse news though is that inflation or the pce at the end of this year is predicted to reach about 5.2 percent so nowhere near the target rate of 2 either it's not until 2023 when we get to 2.6 and 2024 when we get closer to the fed's target rate of about two percent the good news though is that it looks as though inflation has already peaked and the reason the stock market

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%

“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%

“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

Relayed