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Joseph Carlson: AMZN will rise

Said on Sep 19, 2024, at 13:44 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“I still believe that Amazon is one of the more undervalued companies in the market based on my assumptions of its long-term cash flow growth and terminal value”
Watch at 13:44I Just Broke A New Record
PredictionAMZNwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$191.60

Sep 20, 2024

Price at close

$231.48

Sep 19, 2025

Total return, dividends included

+20.8%

S&P 500 +18.2%

AMZN closed at $191.60 on Sep 20, 2024. On Sep 19, 2025 it closed at $231.48, a total return of +20.8% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +18.2%. The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

AMZNWindow checked
$140$160$180$200$220$240$260Mar 2024Jul 2024Nov 2024Mar 2025Jul 2025Nov 2025Said on Sep 19, 2024
$150$200$250$300Mar 2024Oct 2024May 2025Nov 2025Said on Sep 19, 2024

AMZN closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$191.60Sep 20, 2024$188.99Oct 18, 2024−1.4%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +2.9%
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$191.60Sep 20, 2024$220.52Dec 18, 2024+15.1%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +3.2%
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$191.60Sep 20, 2024$192.82Mar 18, 2025+0.6%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 −0.9%
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$191.60Sep 20, 2024$231.48Sep 19, 2025+20.8%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +18.2%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Sep 17, 2027——
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Sep 18, 2029——
Why: 30 days

AMZN closed at $191.60 on Sep 20, 2024. On Oct 18, 2024 it closed at $188.99, a total return of −1.4% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +2.9%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

AMZN closed at $191.60 on Sep 20, 2024. On Dec 18, 2024 it closed at $220.52, a total return of +15.1% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +3.2%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

AMZN closed at $191.60 on Sep 20, 2024. On Mar 18, 2025 it closed at $192.82, a total return of +0.6% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −0.9%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

AMZN closed at $191.60 on Sep 20, 2024. On Sep 19, 2025 it closed at $231.48, a total return of +20.8% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +18.2%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 17, 2027.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 18, 2029.

What was said around it

the upcoming holiday season now of course this is their demo and it's in beta right now but if this thing runs anywhere close to like these demos this is going to be a GameChanger to sellers not every seller on Amazon is a data analyst that can decipher all the metrics and determine the biggest things to focus on so having an AI bot do that for you could be invaluable now you know that I've been bullish on Amazon for a while I really like the company both from a customer perspective and from an investment standpoint I still believe that Amazon is one of the more undervalued companies in the market based on my assumptions of its long-term cash flow growth and terminal value so when I see news like this today with the growing fundamentals of Amazon it makes me more happy about the company now we move on to a story that's a bit more concerning if you're invested in the payment card networks like Visa Mastercard apparently Walmart is planning instant Bank payments that would completely circumvent going through Visa Mastercard Walmart customers will soon have the option to pay directly from their bank account with instant transfers for online purchases the enhanced feature is a flasho in

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Joseph CarlsonAMZNwill rise to $300.00

“I think that Amazon's going above $300 per share.”

Apr 22, 2026 · after 180 days

Incorrect so far · 180 days+2.8%

Joseph CarlsonAMZNwill rise

“Amazon today is worth over $300 per share, but it continually trades at around 230 to 240. Now, it is going up in stock price and I believe that it will continue to over the upcoming year, but I believe investors have a very attractive entry point here today.”

Jan 14, 2026 · after 180 days

Correct so far · 180 days+3.8%

Joseph CarlsonAMZNwill rise

“My thesis with Amazon is that AWS will continue to accelerate. I believe it will grow 18 to 19% over the next year and that accelerated growth will continue to push the stock higher.”

Jan 14, 2026 · after 180 days

Correct so far · 180 days+3.8%

Joseph Carlsona call under review

“Amazon is a buy today and it's a company that I believe will continue to be a buy under $300 per share.”

Oct 13, 2025

Not scored

Joseph CarlsonAMZNwill rise to $280.00

“I still believe over time investors will get the message and it will go from 210 to 220 to 240 up to 280 and beyond.”

Aug 4, 2025 · after 1 year

Correct+31.1%

Joseph CarlsonAMZNwill rise

“So, I think this is actually potentially huge news for Amazon. I'll be following the story. It's not the only reason to get bullish on Amazon, but I think it's one more.”

Jun 6, 2025 · after 1 year

Correct+15.2%