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Joseph Carlson: SBUX will fall

Said on Apr 5, 2022, at 17:24 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“i would not expect the stock to be surging upwards anytime soon”
Watch at 17:24Here's Why Elon Bought Twitter
PredictionSBUXwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$84.12

Apr 5, 2022

Price at close

$104.90

Apr 5, 2023

Total return, dividends included

+27.7%

S&P 500 −8.1%

SBUX closed at $84.12 on Apr 5, 2022. On Apr 5, 2023 it closed at $104.90, a total return of +27.7% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −8.1%. The call was that it would fall.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

SBUXWindow checked
$60$70$80$90$100$110$120Oct 2021Feb 2022Jun 2022Oct 2022Feb 2023Jun 2023Said on Apr 5, 2022
$60$80$100$120Oct 2021Apr 2022Nov 2022Jun 2023Said on Apr 5, 2022

SBUX closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$84.12Apr 5, 2022$77.48May 5, 2022−7.9%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 −8.3%
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$84.12Apr 5, 2022$79.26Jul 1, 2022−5.1%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 −15.1%
180 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$84.12Apr 5, 2022$84.26Sep 30, 2022+1.4%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 −20.1%
1 yearR-DIR v4Incorrect$84.12Apr 5, 2022$104.90Apr 5, 2023+27.7%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 −8.1%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Incorrect$84.12Apr 5, 2022$82.10Apr 4, 2025+4.7%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +17.0%
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Apr 2, 2027——
Why: 30 days

SBUX closed at $84.12 on Apr 5, 2022. On May 5, 2022 it closed at $77.48, a total return of −7.9% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −8.3%. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 90 days

SBUX closed at $84.12 on Apr 5, 2022. On Jul 1, 2022 it closed at $79.26, a total return of −5.1% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −15.1%. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 180 days

SBUX closed at $84.12 on Apr 5, 2022. On Sep 30, 2022 it closed at $84.26, a total return of +1.4% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −20.1%. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 1 year

SBUX closed at $84.12 on Apr 5, 2022. On Apr 5, 2023 it closed at $104.90, a total return of +27.7% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −8.1%. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 3 years

SBUX closed at $84.12 on Apr 5, 2022. On Apr 4, 2025 it closed at $82.10, a total return of +4.7% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +17.0%. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Apr 2, 2027.

What was said around it

of doing buybacks i think they might be able to find something productive to do with it maybe they will reinvest back into their company in a very productive way but i know that starbucks generates a lot more cash than what's necessary to pay their employees a very favorable wage so that cash needs to go somewhere so either they're going to pay down debt dividend out build new stores or reinvest back into their current stores a lot of options remain open for the company but just fair warning if you're an investor in starbucks now after this recent surprise news i would not expect the stock to be surging upwards anytime soon it's down four percent again today as analysts are giving it a downgrade because when you stop doing shared buybacks the earnings growth doesn't grow as rapidly so in my opinion i agree with the analysts here the company is worthy of a temporary downgrade until they reinstate their normal policies so that's my thoughts for now i hope you enjoyed the episode and i'll see you in the next one

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Joseph CarlsonSBUXwill rise

“I'd expect to see the same dividend growth rate in the future”

Aug 2, 2023 · after 1 year

Incorrect−24.6%

Joseph CarlsonSBUXwill outperform

“I think overall the total return of Starbucks is going to be Market beating over the next 5 years”

Sep 30, 2022 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Joseph CarlsonSBUXwill rise

“I really think they're going to be able to keep up this 15% or above free Cashel growth rate a starting 3% yield with a 15% free Cashel growth rate should give returns of above 12% per year and I think they'll be able to do that for years out in the future”

Sep 30, 2022 · after 1 year

Correct+8.9%

Joseph CarlsonSBUXwill rise

“so this is a company that I think will do really well over the next three years come recession and bad news or not”

Sep 22, 2022

Not scored

Joseph CarlsonSBUXwill rise

“i continually dollar cost average into this company because i think right now it is undervalued”

Jun 17, 2022

Not scored

Joseph CarlsonSBUXwill rise

“i'm okay holding this company through the red for a long period of time continuing to dollar cost average in it because i think that one day again investors will”

Jun 7, 2022

Not scored