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Joseph Carlson: SBUX will rise

Said on Sep 30, 2022, at 22:11 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“I really think they're going to be able to keep up this 15% or above free Cashel growth rate a starting 3% yield with a 15% free Cashel growth rate should give returns of above 12% per year and I think they'll be able to do that for years out in the future”
Watch at 22:11This Is When I'll Buy These Companies | Joseph Carlson Ep. 275
PredictionSBUXwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$85.62

Oct 3, 2022

Price at close

$91.27

Sep 29, 2023

Total return, dividends included

+8.9%

S&P 500 +18.4%

SBUX closed at $85.62 on Oct 3, 2022. On Sep 29, 2023 it closed at $91.27, a total return of +8.9% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +18.4%. The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

SBUXWindow checked
$60$70$80$90$100$110$120Apr 2022Aug 2022Dec 2022Apr 2023Jul 2023Nov 2023Said on Sep 30, 2022
$60$80$100$120Apr 2022Oct 2022May 2023Nov 2023Said on Sep 30, 2022

SBUX closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$85.62Oct 3, 2022$87.10Oct 28, 2022+1.7%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +6.1%
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$85.62Oct 3, 2022$99.77Dec 29, 2022+17.2%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +5.1%
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$85.62Oct 3, 2022$100.62Mar 29, 2023+18.8%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +10.4%
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$85.62Oct 3, 2022$91.27Sep 29, 2023+8.9%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +18.4%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$85.62Oct 3, 2022$85.64Sep 29, 2025+7.4%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +88.6%
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Sep 29, 2027——
Why: 30 days

SBUX closed at $85.62 on Oct 3, 2022. On Oct 28, 2022 it closed at $87.10, a total return of +1.7% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +6.1%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

SBUX closed at $85.62 on Oct 3, 2022. On Dec 29, 2022 it closed at $99.77, a total return of +17.2% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +5.1%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

SBUX closed at $85.62 on Oct 3, 2022. On Mar 29, 2023 it closed at $100.62, a total return of +18.8% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +10.4%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

SBUX closed at $85.62 on Oct 3, 2022. On Sep 29, 2023 it closed at $91.27, a total return of +8.9% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +18.4%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

SBUX closed at $85.62 on Oct 3, 2022. On Sep 29, 2025 it closed at $85.64, a total return of +7.4% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +88.6%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 29, 2027.

What was said around it

recently specifically because of Co shutting everything down in 2020 but regardless over the past 5 years they've still grown at by 8% then in the past two years annualized it's been 18% which is a very strong growth rate from 2019 to 2021 and with their initiatives and the things they're doing and the way the secular growth trend is going towards buying drinks every single morning and Starbucks really leaning into their cold beverages these caffeinated cold beverages I really think they're going to be able to keep up this 15% or above free Cashel growth rate a starting 3% yield with a 15% free Cashel growth rate should give returns of above 12% per year and I think they'll be able to do that for years out in the future so for for me Starbucks is currently a buy I think the company will continue to grow at PACE I think their China business will eventually recover and I think their dividend will grow at around 8 to 10% per year on top of the capital appreciation so I think overall the total return of Starbucks is going to be Market beating over the next 5 years now next up moving away from Starbucks we can go into the financial category we have JP Morgan Chase here at a holding value

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Joseph CarlsonSBUXwill rise

“I'd expect to see the same dividend growth rate in the future”

Aug 2, 2023 · after 1 year

Incorrect−24.6%

Joseph CarlsonSBUXwill outperform

“I think overall the total return of Starbucks is going to be Market beating over the next 5 years”

Sep 30, 2022 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Joseph CarlsonSBUXwill rise

“so this is a company that I think will do really well over the next three years come recession and bad news or not”

Sep 22, 2022

Not scored

Joseph CarlsonSBUXwill rise

“i continually dollar cost average into this company because i think right now it is undervalued”

Jun 17, 2022

Not scored

Joseph CarlsonSBUXwill rise

“i'm okay holding this company through the red for a long period of time continuing to dollar cost average in it because i think that one day again investors will”

Jun 7, 2022

Not scored

Joseph CarlsonSBUXwill rise

“i'm trying to buy from pessimism with starbucks and while we have all these negative things going on all this negative stuff in the news people lose track of the fact that starbucks is still a high quality brand”

Jun 7, 2022

Not scored