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Joseph Carlson: SBUX will rise

Said on Aug 2, 2023, at 13:01 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“I'd expect to see the same dividend growth rate in the future”
Watch at 13:01The US Was Just Downgraded
PredictionSBUXwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$102.13

Aug 2, 2023

Price at close

$75.11

Aug 1, 2024

Total return, dividends included

−24.6%

S&P 500 +22.3%

SBUX closed at $102.13 on Aug 2, 2023. On Aug 1, 2024 it closed at $75.11, a total return of −24.6% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +22.3%. The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

SBUXWindow checked
$70$80$90$100$110$120Feb 2023Jun 2023Oct 2023Feb 2024Jun 2024Sep 2024Said on Aug 2, 2023
$60$80$100$120Feb 2023Aug 2023Mar 2024Sep 2024Said on Aug 2, 2023

SBUX closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$102.13Aug 2, 2023$98.00Sep 1, 2023−3.5%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +0.2%
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$102.13Aug 2, 2023$92.24Oct 31, 2023−9.2%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 −6.8%
180 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$102.13Aug 2, 2023$93.80Jan 29, 2024−7.2%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +10.0%
1 yearR-DIR v4Incorrect$102.13Aug 2, 2023$75.11Aug 1, 2024−24.6%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +22.3%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$102.13Aug 2, 2023$105.25Jul 31, 2026+11.1%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +72.3%
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Jul 31, 2028——
Why: 30 days

SBUX closed at $102.13 on Aug 2, 2023. On Sep 1, 2023 it closed at $98.00, a total return of −3.5% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +0.2%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

SBUX closed at $102.13 on Aug 2, 2023. On Oct 31, 2023 it closed at $92.24, a total return of −9.2% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −6.8%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

SBUX closed at $102.13 on Aug 2, 2023. On Jan 29, 2024 it closed at $93.80, a total return of −7.2% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +10.0%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

SBUX closed at $102.13 on Aug 2, 2023. On Aug 1, 2024 it closed at $75.11, a total return of −24.6% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +22.3%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

SBUX closed at $102.13 on Aug 2, 2023. On Jul 31, 2026 it closed at $105.25, a total return of +11.1% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +72.3%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jul 31, 2028.

What was said around it

can look at that as well in the case of Starbucks their stock based compensation is pretty low on a free cash flow base of 2.43 billion for this quarter stock based comp was only 228 million so when we net out the stock base comp from the free cash flow we get a real free cash flow of 2.2 billion dollars that's the amount of money that can be returned back to the investor that's one of the highest quarters for Starbucks in the past five years now of course the company has a growing dividend they're doing this on track growing the dividend around 8 percent per year I'd expect to see the same dividend growth rate in the future and they're accomplishing that dividend growth while buying back shares ever so slightly they're doing it just enough to offset the dilution through stock based comp right now after this quarter Starbucks trades at a two percent free cash flow yield a 34 p e historically speaking this is around average so overall I really like this quarterly report and I think the valuation is pretty good now moving on from Starbucks we get into Vichy Vichy is one of my core positions this is the only Reit I own and a lot of people ask me Joseph why do you own Vichy over realty income

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Joseph CarlsonSBUXwill outperform

“I think overall the total return of Starbucks is going to be Market beating over the next 5 years”

Sep 30, 2022 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Joseph CarlsonSBUXwill rise

“I really think they're going to be able to keep up this 15% or above free Cashel growth rate a starting 3% yield with a 15% free Cashel growth rate should give returns of above 12% per year and I think they'll be able to do that for years out in the future”

Sep 30, 2022 · after 1 year

Correct+8.9%

Joseph CarlsonSBUXwill rise

“so this is a company that I think will do really well over the next three years come recession and bad news or not”

Sep 22, 2022

Not scored

Joseph CarlsonSBUXwill rise

“i continually dollar cost average into this company because i think right now it is undervalued”

Jun 17, 2022

Not scored

Joseph CarlsonSBUXwill rise

“i'm okay holding this company through the red for a long period of time continuing to dollar cost average in it because i think that one day again investors will”

Jun 7, 2022

Not scored

Joseph CarlsonSBUXwill rise

“i'm trying to buy from pessimism with starbucks and while we have all these negative things going on all this negative stuff in the news people lose track of the fact that starbucks is still a high quality brand”

Jun 7, 2022

Not scored