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Andrei Jikh: Inflation will fall

Said on Aug 14, 2023, at 13:41 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“but for the average consumer that would mean lower inflation because we'd pay less for them overall”
Watch at 13:41China’s Economy Just Flipped - What It Means For You
PredictionInflationwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

3.6%

Aug 14, 2023

Reading at close

2.56%

Aug 13, 2024

Change

−1.04 pp

Inflation stood at 3.60% at the start of the window and 2.56% at Aug 13, 2024, a change of −1.04 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Within band

180 days

Within band

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
0%2%4%6%8%10%202020212022202320242024Said on Aug 14, 2023
0%5%10%2020202220232024Said on Aug 14, 2023

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band3.6%3.61%Sep 13, 2023+0.01 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band3.6%3.21%Nov 12, 2023−0.40 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band3.6%3.12%Feb 10, 2024−0.48 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct3.6%2.56%Aug 13, 2024−1.04 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band3.6%3.33%Aug 13, 2026−0.27 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Aug 12, 2028——
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 3.60% at the start of the window and 3.61% at Sep 13, 2023, a change of +0.01 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 3.60% at the start of the window and 3.21% at Nov 12, 2023, a change of −0.40 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 3.60% at the start of the window and 3.12% at Feb 10, 2024, a change of −0.48 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 3.60% at the start of the window and 2.56% at Aug 13, 2024, a change of −1.04 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 3.60% at the start of the window and 3.33% at Aug 13, 2026, a change of −0.27 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 12, 2028.

What was said around it

could speed up automation as companies rush to lower those costs back down so they could stay competitive in the global market they would have to increase Automation and replace workers with robots and AI so in the long term it could actually be bad unless of course the US finds another partner to trade with and replace China with which it probably will like India another benefit though is that commodity prices like oil metal wood raw materials would go down now that could hurt the people investing in those companies because of shrinking profits but for the average consumer that would mean lower inflation because we'd pay less for them overall China's economic slowdown could help the US in a lot of ways but it could also hurt it too for every benefit there's a side effect the world's economy is connected and in the ideal world we would all act in the best interests of the human race unfortunately that is not the world we live in and there's competition but my own personal and very limited opinion is that it's probably best to stay balanced than not root for anyone else's downfall and instead use the opportunity to learn as much as you can about this puzzle so that you can be prepared

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

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“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

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Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

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Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

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Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

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“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

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