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Coin Bureau: Median house price will fall

Said on Aug 13, 2022, at 6:07 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“the median price of newly built homes in the united states recently fell off a cliff and by a cliff i mean more than 10 this downward trend is more than likely to continue”
Watch at 6:07Housing Market Crash: It's Coming & This is WHY!!
PredictionMedian house pricewill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

$454,900

Aug 13, 2022

Reading at close

$431,000

Aug 13, 2023

Change

−$23,900

Median house price stood at $454,900 at the start of the window and $431,000 at Aug 13, 2023, a change of −$23,900 (MSPUS, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than $0.5 are treated as no change.

30 days

Not verifiable

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Median house priceWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
$300,000$350,000$400,000$450,000$500,000201920202021202220222023Said on Aug 13, 2022
$300,000$350,000$400,000$450,000$500,0002019202120222023Said on Aug 13, 2022

Median sales price of houses sold: U.S. Census Bureau and HUD via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect$454,900$467,700Nov 11, 2022+$12,800—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct$454,900$436,800Feb 9, 2023−$18,100—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct$454,900$431,000Aug 13, 2023−$23,900—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct$454,900$410,100Aug 12, 2025−$44,800—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Aug 12, 2027——
Why: 30 days

Not verifiable: no price data. No observations inside the window

Why: 90 days

Median house price stood at $454,900 at the start of the window and $467,700 at Nov 11, 2022, a change of +$12,800 (MSPUS, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than $0.5 are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Median house price stood at $454,900 at the start of the window and $436,800 at Feb 9, 2023, a change of −$18,100 (MSPUS, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than $0.5 are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Median house price stood at $454,900 at the start of the window and $431,000 at Aug 13, 2023, a change of −$23,900 (MSPUS, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than $0.5 are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Median house price stood at $454,900 at the start of the window and $410,100 at Aug 12, 2025, a change of −$44,800 (MSPUS, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than $0.5 are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 12, 2027.

What was said around it

demand for housing in case you didn't know most houses are made of wood at least in the united states this is why many analysts see lumber prices as a leading indicator of what's coming for housing over the last few months the price of lumber has plummeted which tells us two things first that the demand for housing is starting to slow down and that the profit margin for builders has gone up which means that they're likely to continue building even if the sticker price of the house is going down as it so happens the median price of newly built homes in the united states recently fell off a cliff and by a cliff i mean more than 10 this downward trend is more than likely to continue and that's because of the primary demand driver we identified earlier which is of course interest rates as some of you may have seen mortgage rates in the united states recently hit a 14-year high of almost 6 the last time mortgage rates were at this level was during the 2008 financial crisis which was again caused by the housing bubble i'll explain why we may not see the pop just yet in a moment now if you've watched any of our recent videos about the federal reserve you'll know that mortgage rates are strongly

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Median house price will fall

“now on the other hand redin believes that median prices will see a drop of 1% in 2024 Zillow thinks we'll see a drop of0 2% Morgan Stanley anticipates a price drop of 3% and JP Morgan believes that affordability could be resolved by the time 2027 comes around”

Jan 3, 2024

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Median house price — around $394,000

“it's expected that overall the median home price in the US will grow modestly rising to $394,000 for 2024 a 1 a. half% increase over 20123”

Jan 3, 2024

Relayed

Andrei JikhMedian house pricewill rise

“I think the median home price will go up by 7 to 10% I think the median home price will go from $446,000 that it's at right now up to $446,000 to4 $58,000 on the high end”

Jan 3, 2022 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Andrei Jikha call with no clear direction

“i don't think the national median will become 10 million dollars but i can totally see how major cities in the us are going to become so out of reach that the average person will never be able to afford it”

Sep 13, 2021

Not scored