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Graham Stephan: USO will rise

Said on Nov 4, 2022, at 10:33 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“in the short term I wouldn't be surprised if prices remain high and most likely that would result in higher prices for everything else that's dependent on oil”
Watch at 10:33No More Gas | The Worst Energy Crisis In 40 Years
PredictionUSOwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$76.56

Nov 7, 2022

Price at close

$74.85

Nov 3, 2023

Total return, dividends included

−2.2%

S&P 500 +16.2%

USO closed at $76.56 on Nov 7, 2022. On Nov 3, 2023 it closed at $74.85, a total return of −2.2% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +16.2%. The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

USOWindow checked
$50$60$70$80$90$100May 2022Sep 2022Jan 2023May 2023Sep 2023Jan 2024Said on Nov 4, 2022
$50$60$70$80$90$100May 2022Nov 2022Jun 2023Jan 2024Said on Nov 4, 2022

USO closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$76.56Nov 7, 2022$69.84Dec 2, 2022−8.8%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +7.1%
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$76.56Nov 7, 2022$66.57Feb 2, 2023−13.0%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +10.2%
180 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$76.56Nov 7, 2022$60.31May 3, 2023−21.2%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +8.3%
1 yearR-DIR v4Incorrect$76.56Nov 7, 2022$74.85Nov 3, 2023−2.2%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +16.2%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Incorrect$76.56Nov 7, 2022$72.74Nov 3, 2025−5.0%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +87.4%
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Nov 3, 2027——
Why: 30 days

USO closed at $76.56 on Nov 7, 2022. On Dec 2, 2022 it closed at $69.84, a total return of −8.8% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +7.1%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

USO closed at $76.56 on Nov 7, 2022. On Feb 2, 2023 it closed at $66.57, a total return of −13.0% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +10.2%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

USO closed at $76.56 on Nov 7, 2022. On May 3, 2023 it closed at $60.31, a total return of −21.2% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +8.3%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

USO closed at $76.56 on Nov 7, 2022. On Nov 3, 2023 it closed at $74.85, a total return of −2.2% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +16.2%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

USO closed at $76.56 on Nov 7, 2022. On Nov 3, 2025 it closed at $72.74, a total return of −5.0% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +87.4%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Nov 3, 2027.

What was said around it

it's going to take time and financially speaking there's going to be a price to pay while we go through that transition foreign relations are extremely complicated Imports are often less expensive than manufacturing here domestically and realistically we're not producing enough to be able to withstand any disruptions in price however on the bright side the majority of Americans are in favor of being carbon neutral and as technology advances it's going to become cheaper and cheaper to manufacture so financially speaking in the short term I wouldn't be surprised if prices remain high and most likely that would result in higher prices for everything else that's dependent on oil so pretty much everything but long term I believe this will help push the advancement of renewable energy and in the next few decades we could be at a point where foreign oil is of less of an importance until then and I know I say this all the time but it's especially true today do your best to cut back on what you don't need save as much money as possible and keep an emergency fund on the side just in case as history has shown us time and time again eventually prices do come back down so as long as you could get through

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Andrei Jikh, relaying ExxonMobil's senior vice president: USO will rise

“ExxonMobil's senior vice president went on stage at a conference in New York and said that oil inventories are going to hit critically low levels within the next 2 to 3 weeks. And when that happens, the price of oil goes up. His estimate was $150 to $160 a barrel.”

Jun 5, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanUSOwill rise

“And with the Strait of Hormuz still not fully operational, oil prices are only expected to go even higher.”

May 18, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days−17.2%

Coin Bureaua call under review

“so although oil prices could rise above $100 it's unlikely”

Oct 11, 2023

Not scored

Coin Bureau, relaying another source: USO will rise

“some analysts are still predicting oil prices could reach $100 by the end of the year however their numbers and conviction have dwindled in comparison to a fortnight ago when oil prices exceeded $90”

Oct 11, 2023

Relayed

Coin BureauUSOwill rise

“consumers could face higher prices at the pump and this could put further pressure on European”

Dec 14, 2022 · after 1 year

Within band−0.3%

Coin BureauUSOwill rise

“this could have further upward pressure on the oil prices and further Drive Russian shipments away from G7 and EU countries”

Dec 14, 2022 · after 1 year

Within band−0.3%