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Coin Bureau: USO will rise

Said on Dec 14, 2022, at 15:11 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“this could have further upward pressure on the oil prices and further Drive Russian shipments away from G7 and EU countries”
Watch at 15:11G7 vs. Russia: Will Oil Price Caps & Embargos Even Work?!
PredictionUSOwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Within band

Entry price (first close after the video)

$67.36

Dec 14, 2022

Price at close

$67.16

Dec 14, 2023

Total return, dividends included

−0.3%

S&P 500 +20.0%

USO closed at $67.36 on Dec 14, 2022. On Dec 14, 2023 it closed at $67.16, a total return of −0.3% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +20.0%. The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Within band

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

USOWindow checked
$50$60$70$80$90Jun 2022Oct 2022Feb 2023Jun 2023Oct 2023Feb 2024Said on Dec 14, 2022
$50$60$70$80$90Jun 2022Jan 2023Jul 2023Feb 2024Said on Dec 14, 2022

USO closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$67.36Dec 14, 2022$70.05Jan 13, 2023+4.0%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +0.2%
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$67.36Dec 14, 2022$62.93Mar 14, 2023−6.6%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 −1.5%
180 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$67.36Dec 14, 2022$60.24Jun 12, 2023−10.6%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +9.5%
1 yearR-DIR v4Within band$67.36Dec 14, 2022$67.16Dec 14, 2023−0.3%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +20.0%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$67.36Dec 14, 2022$68.81Dec 12, 2025+2.2%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +77.9%
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Dec 13, 2027——
Why: 30 days

USO closed at $67.36 on Dec 14, 2022. On Jan 13, 2023 it closed at $70.05, a total return of +4.0% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +0.2%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

USO closed at $67.36 on Dec 14, 2022. On Mar 14, 2023 it closed at $62.93, a total return of −6.6% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −1.5%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

USO closed at $67.36 on Dec 14, 2022. On Jun 12, 2023 it closed at $60.24, a total return of −10.6% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +9.5%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

USO closed at $67.36 on Dec 14, 2022. On Dec 14, 2023 it closed at $67.16, a total return of −0.3% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +20.0%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

USO closed at $67.36 on Dec 14, 2022. On Dec 12, 2025 it closed at $68.81, a total return of +2.2% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +77.9%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Dec 13, 2027.

What was said around it

have a much bigger impact on oil prices than any cap on Russian oil if significant oil and comes back online in China then we could start seeing prices rise globally again this then begs the broader question of what it will mean for the oil markets with a 60 cap where prices are way above that cap China can always increase the price that it pays for Russian crude however countries in the G7 can't this means that Russia could continue to root Global oil shipments away from these other countries to those that are not enforcing the cap this could have further upward pressure on the oil prices and further Drive Russian shipments away from G7 and EU countries there's also the broader question of whether Russia is likely to respond more forcefully to the cap there has been talk of legislation in Moscow that will ban oil sales to any country that implements it now whether this is just Bluster it's hard to tell but the higher the price goes the less Russia will ship to these countries and the less it will care about a complete ban of oil shipments of course the cap is dynamic next year there will come a time when the price would need to be reassessed if the G7 raises it then that will show

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Andrei Jikh, relaying ExxonMobil's senior vice president: USO will rise

“ExxonMobil's senior vice president went on stage at a conference in New York and said that oil inventories are going to hit critically low levels within the next 2 to 3 weeks. And when that happens, the price of oil goes up. His estimate was $150 to $160 a barrel.”

Jun 5, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanUSOwill rise

“And with the Strait of Hormuz still not fully operational, oil prices are only expected to go even higher.”

May 18, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days−17.2%

Coin Bureaua call under review

“so although oil prices could rise above $100 it's unlikely”

Oct 11, 2023

Not scored

Coin Bureau, relaying another source: USO will rise

“some analysts are still predicting oil prices could reach $100 by the end of the year however their numbers and conviction have dwindled in comparison to a fortnight ago when oil prices exceeded $90”

Oct 11, 2023

Relayed

Coin BureauUSOwill rise

“consumers could face higher prices at the pump and this could put further pressure on European”

Dec 14, 2022 · after 1 year

Within band−0.3%

Graham StephanUSOwill rise

“in the short term I wouldn't be surprised if prices remain high and most likely that would result in higher prices for everything else that's dependent on oil”

Nov 4, 2022 · after 1 year

Incorrect−2.2%