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Graham Stephan: TSLA will rise

Said on Feb 5, 2020, at 6:49 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I'm still bullish on the stock and even at eight hundred dollars a share I had no intention of selling whatsoever”
Watch at 6:49Why I Sold My Tesla Stock ...
PredictionTSLAwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$48.98

Feb 5, 2020

Price at close

$283.33

Feb 4, 2021

Total return, dividends included

+478.5%

S&P 500 +18.2%

TSLA closed at $48.98 on Feb 5, 2020. On Feb 4, 2021 it closed at $283.33, a total return of +478.5% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +18.2%. The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

TSLAWindow checked
$0$100$200$300$400Aug 2019Dec 2019Apr 2020Aug 2020Dec 2020Apr 2021Said on Feb 5, 2020
$0$100$200$300$400Aug 2019Feb 2020Sep 2020Apr 2021Said on Feb 5, 2020

TSLA closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$48.98Feb 5, 2020$46.90Mar 6, 2020−4.2%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 −10.6%
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$48.98Feb 5, 2020$51.21May 5, 2020+4.6%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 −13.5%
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$48.98Feb 5, 2020$99.00Aug 3, 2020+102.1%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 −0.2%
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$48.98Feb 5, 2020$283.33Feb 4, 2021+478.5%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +18.2%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$48.98Feb 5, 2020$189.98Feb 3, 2023+287.9%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +30.0%
5 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$48.98Feb 5, 2020$383.68Feb 3, 2025+683.3%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +93.7%
Why: 30 days

TSLA closed at $48.98 on Feb 5, 2020. On Mar 6, 2020 it closed at $46.90, a total return of −4.2% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −10.6%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

TSLA closed at $48.98 on Feb 5, 2020. On May 5, 2020 it closed at $51.21, a total return of +4.6% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −13.5%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

TSLA closed at $48.98 on Feb 5, 2020. On Aug 3, 2020 it closed at $99.00, a total return of +102.1% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −0.2%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

TSLA closed at $48.98 on Feb 5, 2020. On Feb 4, 2021 it closed at $283.33, a total return of +478.5% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +18.2%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

TSLA closed at $48.98 on Feb 5, 2020. On Feb 3, 2023 it closed at $189.98, a total return of +287.9% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +30.0%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

TSLA closed at $48.98 on Feb 5, 2020. On Feb 3, 2025 it closed at $383.68, a total return of +683.3% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +93.7%. The call was that it would rise.

What was said around it

what happens that way I could be a completely sane and reasonable investor who isn't afraid to take some profits when the time is right or in other words when I'm more than tripled my investment in less than a year but also I'm not gonna sell off everything because they still believe in the company and I think they have the potential to eventually become a 500 billion two trillion dollar company if they just continue to innovate so hopefully me selling half and keeping half is just gonna be the best of both worlds don't get me wrong though I'm still bullish on the stock and even at eight hundred dollars a share I had no intention of selling whatsoever but once I see this amount of irrational exuberance to bring a stock past nine hundred dollars a share just almost overnight I get a little concerned then I want to cover some of my profits in the event it goes down but when it comes to selling stocks and something that not a lot of people talk about I want to mention it here and that would be short-term capital gains tax and here's how that works anytime you sell an investment that you've held for less than a year it's taxed as though it's your ordinary income at your ordinary income tax

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Joseph CarlsonTSLAwill rise

“I believe that this is an incrementally bullish move for Tesla. So, it makes sense that the stock is up today, that investors are more bullish on it, and I think that this move is deserved.”

Jun 23, 2025 · after 1 year

Correct+12.1%

Andrei JikhTSLAwill fall

“it makes perfect sense why the stock has to come down pretty hard”

Dec 23, 2022 · after 1 year

Incorrect+131.5%

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: TSLA will fall

“he said that Tesla could drop as much as 80 to 90 percent and now that Tesla is down almost 70 percent it looks like maybe he really can predict the future”

Dec 23, 2022

Relayed

Graham StephanTSLAwill rise

“I'm still holding the majority of my Tesla stock, and I'm still bullish on the company long term.”

May 23, 2022

Not scored

Joseph Carlson, relaying another source: TSLA will rise

“there's people that say that tesla's going to triple while they're selling their shares”

Oct 5, 2021

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Cathie Wood: TSLA will rise to $3,000

“and who knows maybe kathy wood's prediction that this might one day hit 3 000 a share could be true”

Apr 12, 2021

Relayed