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Joseph Carlson: AAPL will rise

Said on Sep 30, 2022, at 5:53 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“I do think the company is in the undervalued range and I think over the next couple of years investors will be happy if they bought the company around this point”
Watch at 5:53This Is When I'll Buy These Companies | Joseph Carlson Ep. 275
PredictionAAPLwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$142.45

Oct 3, 2022

Price at close

$171.21

Sep 29, 2023

Total return, dividends included

+20.9%

S&P 500 +18.4%

AAPL closed at $142.45 on Oct 3, 2022. On Sep 29, 2023 it closed at $171.21, a total return of +20.9% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +18.4%. The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

AAPLWindow checked
$120$140$160$180$200Apr 2022Aug 2022Dec 2022Apr 2023Jul 2023Nov 2023Said on Sep 30, 2022
$120$140$160$180$200Apr 2022Oct 2022May 2023Nov 2023Said on Sep 30, 2022

AAPL closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$142.45Oct 3, 2022$155.74Oct 28, 2022+9.3%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +6.1%
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$142.45Oct 3, 2022$129.61Dec 29, 2022−8.9%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +5.1%
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$142.45Oct 3, 2022$160.77Mar 29, 2023+13.2%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +10.4%
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$142.45Oct 3, 2022$171.21Sep 29, 2023+20.9%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +18.4%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$142.45Oct 3, 2022$254.43Sep 29, 2025+81.4%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +88.6%
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Sep 29, 2027——
Why: 30 days

AAPL closed at $142.45 on Oct 3, 2022. On Oct 28, 2022 it closed at $155.74, a total return of +9.3% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +6.1%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

AAPL closed at $142.45 on Oct 3, 2022. On Dec 29, 2022 it closed at $129.61, a total return of −8.9% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +5.1%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

AAPL closed at $142.45 on Oct 3, 2022. On Mar 29, 2023 it closed at $160.77, a total return of +13.2% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +10.4%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

AAPL closed at $142.45 on Oct 3, 2022. On Sep 29, 2023 it closed at $171.21, a total return of +20.9% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +18.4%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

AAPL closed at $142.45 on Oct 3, 2022. On Sep 29, 2025 it closed at $254.43, a total return of +81.4% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +88.6%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 29, 2027.

What was said around it

company's future profits are highly predictable I think the company will continue to post record-breaking profit year after year on a free cash flow per share basis this is even better because Apple does an astronomical amount of share Buybacks in the past 5 years Apple's free cash flow per share growth has a compound annual growth rate of 18% this is massive growth of the cash flows you actually own of this business I don't think the company's an absolute still right now where you're getting the best deal ever on it but I do think the company is in the undervalued range and I think over the next couple of years investors will be happy if they bought the company around this point number two we have the real estate category my second largest holding is vichi with $37,000 of value the valuation range for vich is a little bit more narrow I consider the company to be in undervalued territory at $27 or below so I'll probably be buying more of it as it drops down to that price during this Market selloff I think the fair value range right now is around $33 per share and I think if the company gets up above $37 per share that's a point where you could look at taking some gains now vichi is a Reit

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Joseph CarlsonAAPLwill rise

“that should be enough to continue to grow the stock price in the future”

Sep 6, 2024 · after 1 year

Correct+9.0%

Joseph Carlsona call with no clear direction

“I don't believe this is a long-term problem for the stock this seems like a temporary issue now we also got some breaking news that adobe and figma call off their $20 billion acquisition because of”

Dec 18, 2023

Not scored

Joseph Carlsona call with no clear direction

“I was buying the company at $90 per share and 120 and if we do get a dip in the company, I'll buy more of it. But as of right now, I consider Apple a hold.”

Nov 2, 2023

Not scored

Joseph CarlsonAAPLwill rise

“Right now I think it's mostly fair valued. I think the stock has more upside in it, but with the holding that I have already, I'm not in a position where I want to go out and buy a lot”

Nov 2, 2023 · after 1 year

Correct+26.8%

Joseph Carlsona call with no clear direction

“I still remain incredibly positive and bullish on this company”

Sep 19, 2023

Not scored

Joseph CarlsonAAPLwill outperform

“if I have to pick the overall winner of who I think would dominate this Market my vote still stands with apple I think”

Jun 9, 2023 · after 1 year

Not verifiable