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Joseph Carlson: AAPL will rise

Said on Nov 2, 2023, at 8:55 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“Right now I think it's mostly fair valued. I think the stock has more upside in it, but with the holding that I have already, I'm not in a position where I want to go out and buy a lot”
Watch at 8:55Why I Keep Buying Quality Stocks
PredictionAAPLwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$176.65

Nov 3, 2023

Price at close

$222.91

Nov 1, 2024

Total return, dividends included

+26.8%

S&P 500 +33.1%

AAPL closed at $176.65 on Nov 3, 2023. On Nov 1, 2024 it closed at $222.91, a total return of +26.8% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +33.1%. The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

AAPLWindow checked
$160$180$200$220$240$260$280May 2023Sep 2023Jan 2024May 2024Sep 2024Dec 2024Said on Nov 2, 2023
$150$200$250$300May 2023Nov 2023Jun 2024Dec 2024Said on Nov 2, 2023

AAPL closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$176.65Nov 3, 2023$191.24Dec 1, 2023+8.4%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +5.6%
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$176.65Nov 3, 2023$184.40Jan 31, 2024+4.5%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +11.5%
180 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$176.65Nov 3, 2023$170.33Apr 30, 2024−3.3%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +16.3%
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$176.65Nov 3, 2023$222.91Nov 1, 2024+26.8%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +33.1%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$176.65Nov 3, 2023$344.63Oct 30, 2026+97.7%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +80.3%
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Oct 31, 2028——
Why: 30 days

AAPL closed at $176.65 on Nov 3, 2023. On Dec 1, 2023 it closed at $191.24, a total return of +8.4% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +5.6%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

AAPL closed at $176.65 on Nov 3, 2023. On Jan 31, 2024 it closed at $184.40, a total return of +4.5% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +11.5%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

AAPL closed at $176.65 on Nov 3, 2023. On Apr 30, 2024 it closed at $170.33, a total return of −3.3% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +16.3%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

AAPL closed at $176.65 on Nov 3, 2023. On Nov 1, 2024 it closed at $222.91, a total return of +26.8% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +33.1%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

AAPL closed at $176.65 on Nov 3, 2023. On Oct 30, 2026 it closed at $344.63, a total return of +97.7% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +80.3%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Oct 31, 2028.

What was said around it

Apple services grew at 16% year-over-year. So underneath the surface of the gloomy year-over-year decline in revenue, you have a nice juicy business growing in double digits, in fact in the high teens. Getting people in the ecosystem and keeping them happy there is the way they'll profit in the future. As long as Apple can continue to do that, which this report shows they can, they'll continue to give good shareholder returns. Now am I going out of my way to actively buy Apple hand over fist? No, I'm not. Right now I think it's mostly fair valued. I think the stock has more upside in it, but with the holding that I have already, I'm not in a position where I want to go out and buy a lot more Apple. I was buying the company at $90 per share and 120 and if we do get a dip in the company, I'll buy more of it. But as of right now, I consider Apple a hold. Now another huge company in my portfolio that recently reported earnings is S&P Global. This company I've talked about routinely as being a compounder, having a diversified set of businesses within its name and all of them are high quality businesses. So I have high expectations for this company. They recently reported earnings. They're up

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Joseph CarlsonAAPLwill rise

“that should be enough to continue to grow the stock price in the future”

Sep 6, 2024 · after 1 year

Correct+9.0%

Joseph Carlsona call with no clear direction

“I don't believe this is a long-term problem for the stock this seems like a temporary issue now we also got some breaking news that adobe and figma call off their $20 billion acquisition because of”

Dec 18, 2023

Not scored

Joseph Carlsona call with no clear direction

“I was buying the company at $90 per share and 120 and if we do get a dip in the company, I'll buy more of it. But as of right now, I consider Apple a hold.”

Nov 2, 2023

Not scored

Joseph Carlsona call with no clear direction

“I still remain incredibly positive and bullish on this company”

Sep 19, 2023

Not scored

Joseph CarlsonAAPLwill outperform

“if I have to pick the overall winner of who I think would dominate this Market my vote still stands with apple I think”

Jun 9, 2023 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Joseph CarlsonAAPL— a company event

“my prediction is he'll continue to add to this position over time and it will grow from a small position into a larger position”

Nov 2, 2022 · after 1 year

Not verifiable