Graham Stephan: GDP — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

Said on Aug 31, 2022, at 9:26 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“to me it's not rocket science that China's lack of growth would likely result in fewer U.S exports less International Investment and less profit for the businesses that we invest in”
Watch at 9:26China Is About To Cause A Global Recession
PredictionGDP— not judged: the rule reads only US national figuresChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Not verifiable

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names another country, currency or central bank; this rule reads US figures only.

30 days

Not verifiable

90 days

Not verifiable

180 days

Not verifiable

1 year

Not verifiable

The window it was checked over

GDPWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−40%−20%0%20%40%60%201920202021202220222023Said on Aug 31, 2022
−50%0%50%100%2019202120222023Said on Aug 31, 2022

Real GDP: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
Why: 30 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names another country, currency or central bank; this rule reads US figures only.

Why: 90 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names another country, currency or central bank; this rule reads US figures only.

Why: 180 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names another country, currency or central bank; this rule reads US figures only.

Why: 1 year

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names another country, currency or central bank; this rule reads US figures only.

Why: 3 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names another country, currency or central bank; this rule reads US figures only.

Why: 5 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names another country, currency or central bank; this rule reads US figures only.

What was said around it

what this means for you your money and the global economy here's what you need to know on a really really overly simplified scale it's easy to see how one falling economy could affect the demand of another while increasing the costs of another and causing a Cascade effect throughout the rest of the world in this case higher energy costs result in higher inflation which results in higher interest rates which reduces demand which increases supply chain shocks and before you know it we're in a global recession to me it's not rocket science that China's lack of growth would likely result in fewer U.S exports less International Investment and less profit for the businesses that we invest in but solving the issue is probably not going to happen anytime soon and most likely it's going to serve as a reminder that each country will have to adapt for the option of producing their own materials in-house to avoid future shortages realistically though it seems like the most plausible scenario is that both the United States and the Euro area experienced near zero growth next year with negative knockoff effects throughout the rest of the world which basically means the economy will need to cool off before

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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