Coin Bureau, relaying Bloomberg Economics: GDP will fall to 1%

The window it was checked over

Real GDP: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

What was said around it

in Imports does not outweigh the increased revenue from higher prices research by the Peterson Institute for international economics shows the optimal rate to be 50% If All Imports were taxed at this rate the government would be able to rake in 78 billion in Revenue so at best tariffs would be able to pay for a large income tax cut however this $780 billion in Revenue would likely be offset by Revenue lost to the dramatic effects that such high tariffs on All Imports would have on the US economy and international trade Bloomberg economics estimates that Trump's new tariff regime will shrink US GDP by more than 1% and push up CP High by around half a percentage Point according to One Wells Fargo Economist the US will face a quote modest stagflationary shock meaning that economic output would take a tumble while price pressures would rise some would say it's happening already though again that's because since 2018 to 2019 tariffs have been making Essentials more expensive in the US it's a trend that continued under the Biden Administration and seemed on the cards regardless of who won the recent election now tariffs may be Trump's highest conviction play of this cycle but they're not

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