Graham Stephan: một nhận định không rõ hướng

Khung thời gian được kiểm chứng

Lãi suất vay mua nhà cố định 30 năm: khảo sát PMMS của Freddie Mac, qua FRED, số liệu công bố lần đầu. Vùng tô là khung thời gian được kiểm chứng; vùng xám là các giai đoạn suy thoái.

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for the exact same home overnight because their monthly payment wouldn't be changing whatsoever. And this, of course, leads to the first problem. Eventually, those mortgage rates are going to have to go back up like we've already started to see. Right now, we have a housing market with the highest mortgage rates since the mid200s. We have some of the lowest inventory ever on record because existing homeowners know that if they were to sell and buy an identical house down the street, their monthly payment would more than double. And this is only sustainable for so long until A, mortgages return back below 4% or B, housing prices decline. Which happens first? Now, in terms of declining home values, yes, it is true that year-over-year home prices have actually increased by 0.3%. So, if you bought a $400,000 home, today it's worth $41,000 and you've made money, right? Wrong. Like, here's what most people do. They look at their home price on Zillow. They see it trending upwards. And their first thought is, "Oh, wow. Great. It's worth $15,000 more than what I paid. This is incredible." But what they fail to consider is the amount of property tax, mortgage interest, insurance, repairs, maintenance,

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