Graham Stephan: BTC will rise

Said on Jun 7, 2021, at 10:26 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I think this would be a good push for Bitcoin long-term.”
Watch at 10:26Bitcoin Is About To Snap
PredictionBTCwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$33,553

Jun 7, 2021

Price at close

$31,125

Jun 7, 2022

Return

−7.2%

S&P 500 −0.2%

BTC closed at $33,553 on Jun 7, 2021. On Jun 7, 2022 it closed at $31,125, a return of −7.2%. SPY returned −0.2% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Incorrect

The window it was checked over

BTCWindow checked
$10,000$20,000$30,000$40,000$50,000$60,000$70,000Dec 2020Apr 2021Aug 2021Dec 2021Apr 2022Aug 2022Said on Jun 7, 2021
$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000Dec 2020Jun 2021Jan 2022Aug 2022Said on Jun 7, 2021

BTC closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$33,553Jun 7, 2021$33,862Jul 7, 2021+0.9%S&P 500 +3.2%
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$33,553Jun 7, 2021$51,757Sep 5, 2021+54.3%S&P 500 +7.7%
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$33,553Jun 7, 2021$49,152Dec 4, 2021+46.5%S&P 500 +8.1%
1 yearR-DIR v4Incorrect$33,553Jun 7, 2021$31,125Jun 7, 2022−7.2%S&P 500 −0.2%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$33,553Jun 7, 2021$70,799Jun 6, 2024+111.0%S&P 500 +32.4%
5 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$33,553Jun 7, 2021$60,885Jun 6, 2026+81.5%S&P 500 +87.0%
Why: 30 days

BTC closed at $33,553 on Jun 7, 2021. On Jul 7, 2021 it closed at $33,862, a return of +0.9%. SPY returned +3.2% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

BTC closed at $33,553 on Jun 7, 2021. On Sep 5, 2021 it closed at $51,757, a return of +54.3%. SPY returned +7.7% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

BTC closed at $33,553 on Jun 7, 2021. On Dec 4, 2021 it closed at $49,152, a return of +46.5%. SPY returned +8.1% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

BTC closed at $33,553 on Jun 7, 2021. On Jun 7, 2022 it closed at $31,125, a return of −7.2%. SPY returned −0.2% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

BTC closed at $33,553 on Jun 7, 2021. On Jun 6, 2024 it closed at $70,799, a return of +111.0%. SPY returned +32.4% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

BTC closed at $33,553 on Jun 7, 2021. On Jun 6, 2026 it closed at $60,885, a return of +81.5%. SPY returned +87.0% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

What was said around it

But, overall, like I said, I think all of these updates are really positive for Bitcoin and the entire financial system in general. El Salvador wanting to make Bitcoin a legal tender would be a huge milestone for any country. But, still, I hope this is being done for the right reasons, for the well-being of the citizens, and not so much for good PR. If all of this does go through, however, and it's successful, I would not be surprised at all if other countries begin implementing this as well. I think El Salvador is a great starting point. I see a lot of advantages, and I think this would be a good push for Bitcoin long-term. But, like I said, expect to see a lot more volatility, and for myself personally, I am still sticking with my goal of allocating 5% of my entire portfolio between a mix of Bitcoin and Ethereum, and that's it. Until then, anything could happen, but I see this is very exciting news, and I am really excited to see where this goes long-term. So, with that said, you guys, thank you so much for watching. I really appreciate it. As always, make sure to destroy the like button, subscribe button, and notification bell. Also, feel free to add me on Instagram. I post it pretty

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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