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Joseph Carlson: NVDA will fall

Said on Jul 8, 2024, at 17:44 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“if I have to take a guess here with margins at 65% for something that every company is now trying to build out because of how profitable it is I think the margins are more likely to go down over the next 3 years years than up”
Watch at 17:44The NVIDIA Bubble Is About To Pop
PredictionNVDAwill fallby Jul 8, 2027
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$131.38

Jul 9, 2024

Price at close

$160.00

Jul 8, 2025

Total return, dividends included

+21.8%

S&P 500 +13.0%

NVDA closed at $131.38 on Jul 9, 2024. On Jul 8, 2025 it closed at $160.00, a total return of +21.8% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +13.0%. The call was that it would fall.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

NVDAWindow checked
$0$50$100$150$200Jan 2024May 2024Sep 2024Jan 2025May 2025Sep 2025Said on Jul 8, 2024
$0$50$100$150$200Jan 2024Jul 2024Feb 2025Sep 2025Said on Jul 8, 2024

NVDA closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$131.38Jul 9, 2024$98.91Aug 7, 2024−24.7%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 −6.7%
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$131.38Jul 9, 2024$124.92Oct 4, 2024−4.9%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +3.4%
180 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$131.38Jul 9, 2024$144.47Jan 3, 2025+10.0%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +7.2%
1 yearR-DIR v4Incorrect$131.38Jul 9, 2024$160.00Jul 8, 2025+21.8%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +13.0%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Jul 8, 2027——
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Jul 6, 2029——
Stated deadlineR-DIR v4Pending——Jul 8, 2027——
Why: 30 days

NVDA closed at $131.38 on Jul 9, 2024. On Aug 7, 2024 it closed at $98.91, a total return of −24.7% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −6.7%. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 90 days

NVDA closed at $131.38 on Jul 9, 2024. On Oct 4, 2024 it closed at $124.92, a total return of −4.9% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +3.4%. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 180 days

NVDA closed at $131.38 on Jul 9, 2024. On Jan 3, 2025 it closed at $144.47, a total return of +10.0% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +7.2%. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 1 year

NVDA closed at $131.38 on Jul 9, 2024. On Jul 8, 2025 it closed at $160.00, a total return of +21.8% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +13.0%. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jul 8, 2027.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jul 6, 2029.

Why: Stated deadline

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jul 8, 2027.

What was said around it

earnings growth the earnings per share has gone up 631 per over the past year it is impossible for NVIDIA to keep these earnings growth rates up it is going to decelerate dramatically over the next year margins is another big question and there's a lot of debate about margins with Nvidia we know that Nvidia stock has dramatically benefited from rising margins over the past year but the question now is whether or not those margins are likely to continue going up or more likely to go down if I have to take a guess here with margins at 65% for something that every company is now trying to build out because of how profitable it is I think the margins are more likely to go down over the next 3 years years than up there is a chance they could go up maybe Nvidia can protect their remote completely but I have to believe there's more of a chance of margins going down then up and then finally the current valuation of the stock is it a low valuation that will lead to multiple expansion or high starting valuation leading to multiple compression Nvidia currently has a 54 PE ratio and a 40 price to sales this is a pretty high valuation and if I'm looking at this stock right now I think there's far more

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Coin Bureau, relaying another source: NVDA — no direction stated

“options prices potentially say that we could see swings in terms of 10 to 10% up or down when it comes to the actual earnings in in video stock”

Aug 26, 2024

Relayed

Joseph Carlsona call with no clear direction

“maybe Nvidia will continue to trade upwards with Incredible demand especially in the short term but over the next 3 to 5 years I have to look at this from the perspective of a value investor with the fundamentals the valuation and the future growth prospects of the company and right now I see a lot of reasons to be a little bit concerned about this company more than to be extremely bullish on it”

Jul 8, 2024

Not scored

Joseph CarlsonNVDAwill fall

“maybe the PE Ratio could go to 60 or 70 maybe the price to sales could go to 50 but overall I see far more downside with their multiples than upside”

Jul 8, 2024 · after 1 year

Incorrect+21.8%

Joseph Carlsona call under review

“Nvidia currently has a 54 PE ratio and a 40 price to sales this is a pretty high valuation and if I'm looking at this stock right now I think there's far more chance that it's going to have mult mple compression over the next 5 years than multiple expansion”

Jul 8, 2024

Not scored

Joseph Carlsona call under review

“the earnings per share has gone up 631 per over the past year it is impossible for NVIDIA to keep these earnings growth rates up it is going to decelerate dramatically over the next year”

Jul 8, 2024

Not scored

Joseph Carlsona call with no clear direction

“nvidia's Revenue growth is going to decelerate quickly nvidia's Revenue growth is going from rates of 97% down to 30% and from 30% it's only going to decelerate more and more”

Jul 8, 2024

Not scored