Coin Bureau: BTC will fall

Said on Jul 14, 2024, at 16:10 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“therefore it's more than likely that large transfers to exchanges and their concommittant sell orders could drive the price lower however I think that this is likely to be shortlived”
Watch at 16:10Mt. Gox Bitcoin CRASH COMING?? This You NEED To Know!!
PredictionBTCwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$60,798

Jul 14, 2024

Price at close

$119,841

Jul 14, 2025

Return

+97.1%

S&P 500 +12.7%

BTC closed at $60,798 on Jul 14, 2024. On Jul 14, 2025 it closed at $119,841, a return of +97.1%. SPY returned +12.7% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

The window it was checked over

BTCWindow checked
$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000$140,000Jan 2024May 2024Sep 2024Jan 2025May 2025Sep 2025Said on Jul 14, 2024
$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000$140,000Jan 2024Aug 2024Feb 2025Sep 2025Said on Jul 14, 2024

BTC closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Within band$60,798Jul 14, 2024$60,587Aug 13, 2024−0.3%S&P 500 −3.5%
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$60,798Jul 14, 2024$63,206Oct 12, 2024+4.0%S&P 500 +3.5%
180 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$60,798Jul 14, 2024$94,726Jan 10, 2025+55.8%S&P 500 +4.0%
1 yearR-DIR v4Incorrect$60,798Jul 14, 2024$119,841Jul 14, 2025+97.1%S&P 500 +12.7%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Jul 14, 2027——
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Jul 13, 2029——
Why: 30 days

BTC closed at $60,798 on Jul 14, 2024. On Aug 13, 2024 it closed at $60,587, a return of −0.3%. SPY returned −3.5% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 90 days

BTC closed at $60,798 on Jul 14, 2024. On Oct 12, 2024 it closed at $63,206, a return of +4.0%. SPY returned +3.5% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 180 days

BTC closed at $60,798 on Jul 14, 2024. On Jan 10, 2025 it closed at $94,726, a return of +55.8%. SPY returned +4.0% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 1 year

BTC closed at $60,798 on Jul 14, 2024. On Jul 14, 2025 it closed at $119,841, a return of +97.1%. SPY returned +12.7% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jul 14, 2027.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jul 13, 2029.

What was said around it

nothing not quite you see as mentioned sometimes the fud around an event can impact the price more than the event itself in this case rumors of large transfers and selling could cause the price to fall which could cause those creditors to be more sketchshe to sell it could create a self-fulfilling prophecy and that says nothing about the impact of leverage and ETF flows which of course could exacerbate that price action the market is already quite skittish right now and sentiment it's not looking too hot therefore it's more than likely that large transfers to exchanges and their concommittant sell orders could drive the price lower however I think that this is likely to be shortlived I mean it's not like the Bitcoin Market hasn't faced large sell pressure recently let's not forget those Gray scale gbtc flows that saw a total of $18.6 billion flowing out over a few months that's considerably higher than that of all of the mount GX coins and that's also assuming that all of the coins from GX will be sold something which I elucidated earlier is very unlikely and there is one more variable here that you need to consider and that is the fact that it's not just Bitcoin that is being distributed

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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