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Coin Bureau: BTC will fall

Said on Aug 30, 2022, at 4:31 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“now even though the crypto market is likely headed lower in the medium term it's quite possible that it will still see another recovery in the short term”
Watch at 4:31Crypto News: ETH, ADA, Twitter, Jackson Hole, BlackRock & More!
PredictionBTCwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

Recorded as crypto market, a word for a group: this call is judged on BTC, the stand-in the method assigns to it.

What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$19,812

Aug 30, 2022

Price at close

$27,300

Aug 30, 2023

Return

+37.8%

S&P 500 +15.1%

BTC closed at $19,812 on Aug 30, 2022. On Aug 30, 2023 it closed at $27,300, a return of +37.8%. SPY returned +15.1% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

BTCWindow checked
$10,000$20,000$30,000$40,000$50,000Mar 2022Jul 2022Oct 2022Mar 2023Jun 2023Oct 2023Said on Aug 30, 2022
$10,000$20,000$30,000$40,000$50,000Mar 2022Sep 2022Apr 2023Oct 2023Said on Aug 30, 2022

BTC closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$19,812Aug 30, 2022$19,592Sep 29, 2022−1.1%S&P 500 −8.5%
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$19,812Aug 30, 2022$16,213Nov 28, 2022−18.2%S&P 500 −0.2%
180 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$19,812Aug 30, 2022$23,555Feb 26, 2023+18.9%S&P 500 +0.4%
1 yearR-DIR v4Incorrect$19,812Aug 30, 2022$27,300Aug 30, 2023+37.8%S&P 500 +15.1%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Incorrect$19,812Aug 30, 2022$108,377Aug 29, 2025+447.0%S&P 500 +69.0%
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Aug 29, 2027——
Why: 30 days

BTC closed at $19,812 on Aug 30, 2022. On Sep 29, 2022 it closed at $19,592, a return of −1.1%. SPY returned −8.5% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 90 days

BTC closed at $19,812 on Aug 30, 2022. On Nov 28, 2022 it closed at $16,213, a return of −18.2%. SPY returned −0.2% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 180 days

BTC closed at $19,812 on Aug 30, 2022. On Feb 26, 2023 it closed at $23,555, a return of +18.9%. SPY returned +0.4% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 1 year

BTC closed at $19,812 on Aug 30, 2022. On Aug 30, 2023 it closed at $27,300, a return of +37.8%. SPY returned +15.1% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 3 years

BTC closed at $19,812 on Aug 30, 2022. On Aug 29, 2025 it closed at $108,377, a return of +447.0%. SPY returned +69.0% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 29, 2027.

What was said around it

context the last time the fed started reducing its balance sheet the stock market crashed by 20 percent in the months that followed it's not unreasonable to expect a similar situation this time around especially since a 20 decline would be consistent with the roughly 40 drop the crypto market needs to see to reach its bear market lows at least according to our calculations now i'll be doing an in-depth video about what happened at jackson hole and what the fed could do going forward later this week so stay tuned for that now even though the crypto market is likely headed lower in the medium term it's quite possible that it will still see another recovery in the short term i say this because the scary shakeout we saw over the weekend was mostly due to leveraged traders getting liquidated now as painful as this was it wiped the crypto market clean of most of the speculation that's been accumulating over the last couple of weeks and provided a more stable base from which the crypto market could move higher in the short term if you're wondering where all the speculation has been coming from the answer is of course ethereum's transition from proof of work to proof-of-stake which is officially

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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