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Graham Stephan: BTC will rise

Said on Jul 29, 2021, at 9:34 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I have to say I think it's all fairly positive news and the more research I do on this, the more bullish I am long-term on Bitcoin.”
Watch at 9:34Bitcoin Just Got Squeezed
PredictionBTCwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$40,016

Jul 29, 2021

Price at close

$23,774

Jul 29, 2022

Return

−40.6%

S&P 500 −5.2%

BTC closed at $40,016 on Jul 29, 2021. On Jul 29, 2022 it closed at $23,774, a return of −40.6%. SPY returned −5.2% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

BTCWindow checked
$10,000$20,000$30,000$40,000$50,000$60,000$70,000Jan 2021May 2021Sep 2021Jan 2022May 2022Sep 2022Said on Jul 29, 2021
$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000Jan 2021Aug 2021Mar 2022Sep 2022Said on Jul 29, 2021

BTC closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$40,016Jul 29, 2021$48,895Aug 28, 2021+22.2%S&P 500 +2.2%
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$40,016Jul 29, 2021$58,413Oct 27, 2021+46.0%S&P 500 +3.3%
180 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$40,016Jul 29, 2021$36,958Jan 25, 2022−7.6%S&P 500 −0.7%
1 yearR-DIR v4Incorrect$40,016Jul 29, 2021$23,774Jul 29, 2022−40.6%S&P 500 −5.2%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$40,016Jul 29, 2021$68,250Jul 28, 2024+70.6%S&P 500 +29.1%
5 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$40,016Jul 29, 2021$63,915Jul 28, 2026+59.7%S&P 500 +79.9%
Why: 30 days

BTC closed at $40,016 on Jul 29, 2021. On Aug 28, 2021 it closed at $48,895, a return of +22.2%. SPY returned +2.2% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

BTC closed at $40,016 on Jul 29, 2021. On Oct 27, 2021 it closed at $58,413, a return of +46.0%. SPY returned +3.3% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

BTC closed at $40,016 on Jul 29, 2021. On Jan 25, 2022 it closed at $36,958, a return of −7.6%. SPY returned −0.7% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

BTC closed at $40,016 on Jul 29, 2021. On Jul 29, 2022 it closed at $23,774, a return of −40.6%. SPY returned −5.2% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

BTC closed at $40,016 on Jul 29, 2021. On Jul 28, 2024 it closed at $68,250, a return of +70.6%. SPY returned +29.1% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

BTC closed at $40,016 on Jul 29, 2021. On Jul 28, 2026 it closed at $63,915, a return of +59.7%. SPY returned +79.9% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

What was said around it

accurately predicting the price of Bitcoin, models like this in my opinion certainly have some merit but they should also be taken in context with other analysis as well. So even though so far it has followed a consistent price target that puts it at a $5 million valuation in the future, it's yet to be seen at whether or not it will be trading at its predicted floor of $47,000 by the end of August. So as far as what I think about this as a non-crypto expert who's just obsessed with all things personal finance, investing and making money, I have to say I think it's all fairly positive news and the more research I do on this, the more bullish I am long-term on Bitcoin. In fact, I think this is the only asset that has consistently exceeded my expectations the more I learn about it. And it's for that reason that I have consistently been buying in on a regular basis. My entire strategy is just to dollar cost average into Bitcoin as often as I can with the expectation of holding it long-term regardless of what the price is at. And that doesn't mean I'm going all in with everything, but it does mean that I've allocated 5% of my entire portfolio to cryptocurrency. And then while I'm holding it, I just

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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